Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

From multiple flash flood events to a dramatic recovery of the worst drought in Western Kentucky's history, our changing seasons are seemingly becoming more extreme. The 2013 National Climate Assessment shows that extreme heavy precipitation events are becoming more common across the SE Unites States. In June alone, the WPSD Local 6 area was impacted by 4 flash flood events and June 2013 became the 5th wettest on record. South Fulton, Tennessee, Paducah, Kentucky, and Madisonville/Mortons Gap, Kentucky all suffered damage from short duration heavy precipitation events. One of the wettest June's on record was anything but expected after one of the country's worst droughts devastated most of Western Kentucky's corn and soybean crop. As we begin the month of July, the USDA reports that the corn & soybean crops of Kentucky and Tennessee rank as the best in the US. Thanks to a wet and mild spring/summer farmers are staying positive for a bumper crop to recoup 201...

The chill in the air is rather brisk and a light dusting of snow covered the ground this morning....Winter's grip is still holding tight despite being the end of March.....but isn't this what March used to be like? We've gotten so used to an early Spring that now when an "average" Winter/Spring comes along, it stings a little. :) Last March we were basking in record warmth with multiple 80+ degree days and farmers were planting earlier than ever hoping for a bumper crop. This March, a weak La Nina weather pattern along with a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation signal has kept up much colder than the average. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) means this: The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern United States The positive phase brings the opposite conditions, steering ocean storms farther north and bringing wetter weather to Alaska Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center - March 26, 2013 The climate models project the above forecast and...

 CPC/NOAA March Temp Outlook Officially Spring begins on Wednesday, March 20th but for record keeping's sake, Meteorologists begin keeping track of the season on March 1st. The newest climate outlook for March was released today and our "average" February temps may just take us right into the entire month of March. The latest maps are shown to the right.   With the current weather pattern holding pretty tight, it looks as though temps will remain relatively cool or close to average for at least the first half of March. There are some signals in the long range forecast showing a warming trend to our west.  As for precipitation the trend looks a little wetter than average and that does not really deviate much from how we have begun 2013. January was the wettest on record at the Paducah National Weather Service and February ran almost exactly average.    CPC/NOAA March Precip Outlook  This type of outlook leaves me wonder...

......during National Severe Weather Preparedness Week! FEMA and NOAA partnered to designate March 3-9, 2013, as National Severe Weather Preparedness Week, and is calling upon all Americans to Be a Force of Nature . I'm a firm believer and am committed to Being a Force of Nature and pledge to do so by: knowing our risk, taking action, and being an example for our families and community by sharing the steps we took to be prepared. Because we live in an area prone to tornadoes, flash floods, severe thunderstorms, and high winds the last year's winter EF4 Harrisburg tornado reminded us that this weather can strike anywhere and at any time.   Harrisburg, IL Leap Day 2012 - EF4 Damage Just this past year, there were more than 450 weather-related fatalities and nearly 2,600 injuries. Each time severe weather threatens we hear stories of ordinary Americans who do the extraordinary to save loved ones – a mother protecting her children by shield...

With extreme drought severely impacting the Bluegrass State in 2012, farmers and growers looking forward would rightfully be concerned with the future of the state's agriculture. On Tuesday, Governor Steve Beshear, along with the Kentucky Ag Council (KAC), unveiled its 5-year strategic plan for agriculture called - Connecting: Strategies to Better Kentucky's Agricultural Economy and Rural Communities (2013-2018). December (year end report) showed that a total of $8 Billion dollars had been distributed due to crop loss all across the Midwest, according to the USDA's Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. Courtesy: ClimateCentral According to the USDA, Kentucky suffered the worst corn yields among the top 10 in 2012. The Bluegrass registered 50% below the average yield from 2002-2011 with only 68 bushels per acre. When I spoke to the Kentucky State Climatologist back during the late summer of 2012, he spoke of the Western side of the state suffering from the worst drought condi...

Wednesday Evening Update:  Forecast continues to look on track for the heaviest, most impacting winter weather to cause problems across Western Illinois and Southeast Missouri starting Thursday morning. Two time periods are cause for concern beginning with sunrise thru the morning commute. The forecast map below shows a light band of freezing precipitation lifting northward across the area. This may make for some slick roads early, especially those untreated.    Winter Weather Types Expected Once that initial line lifts north, we will be awaiting a secondary push of moisture from the west which will move in by midday and transverse the area until later in the evening. Temperatures will warm just above freezing in most locations by mid afternoon and we will begin to see the switchover to rain and rain/sleet mix to carry us into the evening. Here are a couple of maps to show where accumulations are most likely.  Total Snow Accumulation Snow accumulatio...

It seems as though we are literally just scratching the surface when making strides recovering from Drought 2012. The latest drought monitor shows us in the clear from a classified drought but long term problem runs deeper. As of February 13, 2013, 2,333 primary counties within the United States were designated for 2012 Crop Disaster Losses through the USDA with another 423 contiguous counties following last year's historic drought. New research was released this week from the University of Missouri School of Natural Resources It showed the soils of the Midwest that suffered exceptional drought may take up to two years to fully recover.   At the Paducah National Weather Service, January precipitation was well above normal and ended up being the wettest on record. Much of the Midwest has also seen an uptick in frequency of precipitation but Randall Miles (MU Soil Science Associate Professor) says, "What we may be sinking into the soil now may not get down to the, l...