Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Heavy downpours and flash flooding events continue to increase in different areas of the United States. These specific type of events have increased between 10-40% in the Mid South since 1958. (Kentucky 16%, Tennessee 14%, Missouri 38% and Illinois 12%.) We don't have to look back too far in the records for our last event. Local businesses and homes were damaged from rushing flood waters when when over 6" of rain fell in 2-3 hours over parts of Paducah, KY. The heavy rain and storms began around 3AM and came to an end just before sunrise. Streams and creeks were overwhelmed along with an inundated urban development area. Flood zones were filled several inches, even feet deep, and only took a few short hours to dry out. The damage was already done to hundreds of homes/businesses. Many factors came together for this event to become a disaster for many. Most people were asleep when the event began to unfold. There were very few eyes to report the magnitude of the flooding t...

Wednesday September 9, 2015 Update: Created by Jennifer Rukavina via NOAA/ESRL Data The current trend will continue as NOAA continues to forecast a strong El Nino episode through late Winter and possibly Spring 2016. The following two graphics show on a map what I have detailed below about "Notable El Nino Episodes for Winter". Winters tend to be warmer than normal and precipitation stays fairly average. The two maps compare the previously mentioned winter El Nino episodes to the long-term average from 1950-2007. Created by Jennifer Rukavina via NOAA/ESRL Data August 21, 2015 Original Post Forecasting into the season ahead is most accurate when looking to similar weather patterns of the past. As you have probably seen in the news El Nino is expected to strengthen into the upcoming fall and winter. I've done a little digging into the historical record to find out how we have fared during similar El Nino episodes. Here is what I was able to fin...

As our global climate changes, so does our planting zones, helping us determine which flowers/shrubs/trees are hardy in specific areas. The Local 6 area has always been split by 2-3 growing zones so placement becomes very important to those in the agricultural community. The image below represents the average over the past 30 years. Climate Central published the following information:  "What kinds of flowers, shrubs and trees you’ll find at your local nursery depends on your climate — how warm it tends to get in summer, and how cold in winter. A plant that’s happy in Wisconsin might be miserable in Alabama, and vice versa. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has formalized these differences into " hardiness zones " — strips of similar climate that run more or less east-to-west (except in the high mountains), where particular plants should do especially well. But as the planet warms under its thickening blanket of greenhouse gases, those zones are shifting northward. Th...

Wednesday AM Update: An early round of showers continues to move east across the area this morning in advance of the heavier showers and storms arriving later today and overnight. The Paducah National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood WATCH for much of Western Kentucky, Southeast Missouri and parts of Southern Illinois. Here is the latest map (right).  Area-wide we could pick up 1-3" of rain but where heavy rain persists or trains over the same areas, there is the possibility of somebody recording 4-5". Southeast Missouri, far Western Kentucky, and counties along the Mississippi River appear to be at highest risk for those higher totals. Flash flooding and river flooding will be the highest concern with this storm system. People who live near the Big Muddy and Cache Rivers in IL, the Black, St. Francois and Current Rivers in MO, the Obion River in TN and the numerous creeks in KY such as the Clarks, Obion, Cypress, and Perkins should be alert to fast rising water...

Friday Midday Update: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most of the Local 6 area to an ENHANCED RISK of severe storms today. The threats still include damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.  The timing still looks pretty accurate according to the forecast images below. We anticipate scattered storms to develop and move east by early afternoon. A more organized line of possibly severe storms should develop over Missouri by early evening and push east before midnight tonight. Thursday Evening Update: Periods of high heat and humidity have been with us for a couple weeks now peaking today before showers and thunderstorms begin spreading into the Local 6 area late tonight and throughout the day on Friday. A cold front will push south across our area and bring lower humidity and cooler temperatures to get the weekend started. A few strong storms may skirt our area Thursday Night then redevelop by midday on Friday and bring along the threat of damaging...

Poison ivy creates a lot of headaches this time of year for gardeners and landscapers as it spreads and can even become invasive. It can be tricky sometimes to identify poison ivy from other vines in our backyard. Here is a short video I made in the wooded area near the station to help you quickly identify a sticky situation and protect yourself from weeks of itching.  Here are the 3 main tips I cover in the video: 1. Poison ivy has 3 leaves, never more 2. Poison ivy grows shoots offset side to side, not side by side 3. Poison ivy never has thorns In our ever-changing climate, plants and organisms will adapt and change to live/survive in future environment types. Poison ivy has long been an irritant and may get worse if our climate continues to warm (human induced or not).  From Climate Central: "A 2007 study by Lewis Ziska , a plant physiologist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, supports this concept. His study exposed poison ivy pl...

Friday AM Update Heavy rain still appears to be our greatest concern as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill pass directly over the Local 6 area throughout the day today. A Flash Flood WATCH continues for Southern Illinois, SE Missouri, and the Ohio River counties in Western Kentucky through Saturday. Here is a look at today's forecast concerning rainfall totals from the Weather/Hydrological Prediction Center. In any given area, 2-4 inches of rain will be possible. Low-lying areas are most prone to flash flooding. Showers and storms will increase in coverage and intensity during the day on Friday.  Keep preparedness and awareness in mind as heavy rain moves in. Locate areas of higher ground in the event you need to retreat there. Never drive across flooded roadways. Keep children from playing in flood waters. Water depth and swiftness is difficult to determine. Below is the latest Flash Flooding Potential Briefing from the Paducah National Weather Service.