Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Friday Evening Update: Forecast River levels along the Ohio River at Paducah and Cairo have been lowered by around two feet. According to the City of Paducah, these lower levels will allow the city to keep from putting in additional flood gates. The Army Corps of Engineers is also more optimistic about not having to operate the Birds Point Floodway. Here is a look at the Ohio River with an aerial view this afternoon . Vide o courtesy of UAVRG Friday Morning Update: From the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Information Center: "Info from Thursday evening's Public Meeting with Congressman Jason Smith, Corps of Engineers leaders and local residents at Charleston, Mo. The National Weather Service has revised the forecasted river crest at Cairo, Ill., downward to 57.5 feet on Jan. 4 - good news for everyone." The Red Cross shelter in Cape Girardeau continues to accept evacuees. With lower water levels projected for Cairo, IL, the likelihood of activating the Birds Po...

Photo Credit: Cody Duty - Houston Chronicle - AP A follow-up post to the original, " The Future of Flash Flood Warnings ." Flash flooding has claimed scores of lives across the U.S. in 2015. Twenty-six major disaster declarations have been made in the name of FLOODING. As heavy downpours increase in frequency, millions of people will be susceptible to this rapid impact natural disaster. El Nino may also contribute to an increase in events in the next several months for parts of the country. The New Year's Flood in the Mississippi River Sandbagging efforts along MS River - Photo: Michael Kelley Valley is the most recent example of how a single event can take lives and destroy property with very little in the way of time to react.  You can prepare people as much as humanly possible but until it impacts them specifically, you are sort of speaking and dealing with the unknown. Our region is no stranger to extreme river flooding and flash flooding (urban) e...

Climate Central - State of KY Report Card - Full Report For the first time Climate Central released report cards featuring how well each of the 50 states prepares for current hazards and future climate change. A closer look reveals relatively bad grades for states in the Local 6 area. Missouri was at the bottom of the 4-state area coming in with a grade of "F". Kentucky and Illinois followed with a grade of "D" while Tennessee earned highest marks in the region with a "C". The nearly failing grades in Kentucky showed up when looking at future disasters, planning, and long-term preparedness statewide.  The graphic above shows the breakdown of the grades assigned to the different climate related disasters deemed future risks. The same study/grading showed Kentucky actually scoring very well as it relates to disaster response. Climate Central identified two programs outlining action already taken: Kentucky’s Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan, technical...

TUESDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: Storms still follow the timeline of late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours before midnight. The ENHANCED RISK of storms has been adjusted a bit further north from yesterday's outlook which is what we were expecting with the greater risk of tornadoes over MO/IL and a continued threat for damaging winds in TN/KY. Here is a look at the latest as of this morning.   The graphic below explains the different risk categories. Safety and preparedness information still exists further down in this post. A larger update will be available here this evening. MONDAY MORNING UPDATE: Thoughts discussed yesterday of seeing our region outlined in an enhanced or moderate risk for severe weather have materialized this morning with the newest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center. Storms will develop during the afternoon into the evening on Wednesday as a potent storm system barrels through the Midwest and Midsouth. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be pos...

Heavy downpours and flash flooding events continue to increase in different areas of the United States. These specific type of events have increased between 10-40% in the Mid South since 1958. (Kentucky 16%, Tennessee 14%, Missouri 38% and Illinois 12%.) We don't have to look back too far in the records for our last event. Local businesses and homes were damaged from rushing flood waters when when over 6" of rain fell in 2-3 hours over parts of Paducah, KY. The heavy rain and storms began around 3AM and came to an end just before sunrise. Streams and creeks were overwhelmed along with an inundated urban development area. Flood zones were filled several inches, even feet deep, and only took a few short hours to dry out. The damage was already done to hundreds of homes/businesses. Many factors came together for this event to become a disaster for many. Most people were asleep when the event began to unfold. There were very few eyes to report the magnitude of the flooding t...

Wednesday September 9, 2015 Update: Created by Jennifer Rukavina via NOAA/ESRL Data The current trend will continue as NOAA continues to forecast a strong El Nino episode through late Winter and possibly Spring 2016. The following two graphics show on a map what I have detailed below about "Notable El Nino Episodes for Winter". Winters tend to be warmer than normal and precipitation stays fairly average. The two maps compare the previously mentioned winter El Nino episodes to the long-term average from 1950-2007. Created by Jennifer Rukavina via NOAA/ESRL Data August 21, 2015 Original Post Forecasting into the season ahead is most accurate when looking to similar weather patterns of the past. As you have probably seen in the news El Nino is expected to strengthen into the upcoming fall and winter. I've done a little digging into the historical record to find out how we have fared during similar El Nino episodes. Here is what I was able to fin...

As our global climate changes, so does our planting zones, helping us determine which flowers/shrubs/trees are hardy in specific areas. The Local 6 area has always been split by 2-3 growing zones so placement becomes very important to those in the agricultural community. The image below represents the average over the past 30 years. Climate Central published the following information:  "What kinds of flowers, shrubs and trees you’ll find at your local nursery depends on your climate — how warm it tends to get in summer, and how cold in winter. A plant that’s happy in Wisconsin might be miserable in Alabama, and vice versa. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has formalized these differences into " hardiness zones " — strips of similar climate that run more or less east-to-west (except in the high mountains), where particular plants should do especially well. But as the planet warms under its thickening blanket of greenhouse gases, those zones are shifting northward. Th...