Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Monday AM Update: This morning's look at the risk area from the Storm Pediction Center is still pretty close to what we've been seeing the past couple of days. Kentucky and Tennessee are included in the ENHANCED risk and everyone in the Local 6 area is covered under the SLIGHT risk area. To see how each risk area is defined, see the Sunday PM Update below.  Sunday PM Update: The Storm Prediction Center has updates their outlook and it still places KY/TN in the area for greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday. A few showers and storms will be possible late tonight and early tomorrow as an initial weak front passes through the area. By Monday evening, a warm front will lift back north across the Local 6 area, bringing back the moisture needed for Tuesday storm development.  Here is a closer look at timing of the main line of storms expected on Tuesday: Friday PM Update:   All signs have pointed to a major storm system developing in the heart ...

SNOW TOTALS AS OF 11AM These are official from the National Weather Service in Paducah and Memphis. Some impressive areas of deep snow. Did you see my projected sweet spots I posted yesterday? Scroll down to yesterday's post to see the highlighted cities I picked for "sweet spots" and how it compares to the following list. Click to enlarge. A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A mix of wintry precipitation will move in from southwest to northeast this afternoon and evening, light to begin. Later tonight and early Friday morning the mixed precipitation will switch over to snow, heavy at times, making for hazardous road conditions. A Winter Storm WARNING is already in place from Thursday 6PM until Friday Midday.  An area of low pressure will develop in the deep south by this evening and move northeast through the Tennessee Valley. We always look to the heavy snow band to set up around 150 miles to the northwest ...

Friday Evening Update: Forecast River levels along the Ohio River at Paducah and Cairo have been lowered by around two feet. According to the City of Paducah, these lower levels will allow the city to keep from putting in additional flood gates. The Army Corps of Engineers is also more optimistic about not having to operate the Birds Point Floodway. Here is a look at the Ohio River with an aerial view this afternoon . Vide o courtesy of UAVRG Friday Morning Update: From the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Information Center: "Info from Thursday evening's Public Meeting with Congressman Jason Smith, Corps of Engineers leaders and local residents at Charleston, Mo. The National Weather Service has revised the forecasted river crest at Cairo, Ill., downward to 57.5 feet on Jan. 4 - good news for everyone." The Red Cross shelter in Cape Girardeau continues to accept evacuees. With lower water levels projected for Cairo, IL, the likelihood of activating the Birds Po...

Photo Credit: Cody Duty - Houston Chronicle - AP A follow-up post to the original, " The Future of Flash Flood Warnings ." Flash flooding has claimed scores of lives across the U.S. in 2015. Twenty-six major disaster declarations have been made in the name of FLOODING. As heavy downpours increase in frequency, millions of people will be susceptible to this rapid impact natural disaster. El Nino may also contribute to an increase in events in the next several months for parts of the country. The New Year's Flood in the Mississippi River Sandbagging efforts along MS River - Photo: Michael Kelley Valley is the most recent example of how a single event can take lives and destroy property with very little in the way of time to react.  You can prepare people as much as humanly possible but until it impacts them specifically, you are sort of speaking and dealing with the unknown. Our region is no stranger to extreme river flooding and flash flooding (urban) e...

Climate Central - State of KY Report Card - Full Report For the first time Climate Central released report cards featuring how well each of the 50 states prepares for current hazards and future climate change. A closer look reveals relatively bad grades for states in the Local 6 area. Missouri was at the bottom of the 4-state area coming in with a grade of "F". Kentucky and Illinois followed with a grade of "D" while Tennessee earned highest marks in the region with a "C". The nearly failing grades in Kentucky showed up when looking at future disasters, planning, and long-term preparedness statewide.  The graphic above shows the breakdown of the grades assigned to the different climate related disasters deemed future risks. The same study/grading showed Kentucky actually scoring very well as it relates to disaster response. Climate Central identified two programs outlining action already taken: Kentucky’s Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan, technical...

TUESDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: Storms still follow the timeline of late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours before midnight. The ENHANCED RISK of storms has been adjusted a bit further north from yesterday's outlook which is what we were expecting with the greater risk of tornadoes over MO/IL and a continued threat for damaging winds in TN/KY. Here is a look at the latest as of this morning.   The graphic below explains the different risk categories. Safety and preparedness information still exists further down in this post. A larger update will be available here this evening. MONDAY MORNING UPDATE: Thoughts discussed yesterday of seeing our region outlined in an enhanced or moderate risk for severe weather have materialized this morning with the newest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center. Storms will develop during the afternoon into the evening on Wednesday as a potent storm system barrels through the Midwest and Midsouth. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be pos...

Heavy downpours and flash flooding events continue to increase in different areas of the United States. These specific type of events have increased between 10-40% in the Mid South since 1958. (Kentucky 16%, Tennessee 14%, Missouri 38% and Illinois 12%.) We don't have to look back too far in the records for our last event. Local businesses and homes were damaged from rushing flood waters when when over 6" of rain fell in 2-3 hours over parts of Paducah, KY. The heavy rain and storms began around 3AM and came to an end just before sunrise. Streams and creeks were overwhelmed along with an inundated urban development area. Flood zones were filled several inches, even feet deep, and only took a few short hours to dry out. The damage was already done to hundreds of homes/businesses. Many factors came together for this event to become a disaster for many. Most people were asleep when the event began to unfold. There were very few eyes to report the magnitude of the flooding t...