Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

March Update: Winter 2016-2017 has officially gone down in the record books as warmest on record (along with the month of February) and the Spring severe weather season is now underway as March roared in loudly. A tornado/severe weather outbreak unfolded from February 28 - March 1st leaving a trail of damage across every state in the Local 6 area (KY, IL, TN, MO). It was exactly 5 years to the date and hour that we were covering a tornado ravaging Harrisburg, IL and  would later hear of its EF4 rating. The same night 5 years later another violent EF4 tornado in Perryville, MO and an EF3 in Crossville, IL from the same parent storm. One of the main reasons I wrote this particular post is to give us an idea of what we can expect for Spring/Summer 2017. Looking back through historical data it was pretty clear that 2012 was a correlation too close to ignore and might give us the best insight to what may come this season. A weak La Nina episode continues dissolve and a trend towar...

Wednesday PM Update:   The moisture train is full steam ahead into the Local 6 area setting us up for several more rounds of rain and the potential for lowland flooding. Showers and a few thunderstorms will overspread the region starting tonight and becoming more numerous by sunrise.  The greatest concern with rain moving in is the already-saturated ground that is in place.  Water will collect quickly in low lying areas and may also cover roads exposed in those same areas. The highest rainfall totals from Wednesday night through Friday morning are centered over Western Kentucky and NW Tennessee where 1-2" is possible. Flood prone areas should be alert to rising water Thursday. The graphic above is a look at rainfall projections through Friday morning. Additional rain is expected in smaller amounts on Friday and Saturday as a warm front lifts north of the Local 6 area. A cold front will slowly push our way this weekend bringing another round of heavy rain and thunder...

Agenda of Presentations and Live Streaming Times During live streaming times I will be available in the associated chat room to answer questions and ask questions of the speakers for those viewers who have questions. During the Q&A at 12:45pm each day, I will be on Facebook LIVE to give a wrap-up and to give you one-on-one interaction with the speakers of the day. I'll also be popping up on Facebook LIVE from time to time during the afternoons to give you exclusive behind the scenes updates and a look to when I will be live on WPSD Local 6 Tue, Wed, and Thu. The live stream video player will appear here the morning of January 9th.  Live Reports on Local 6: Tuesday 5pm, Wednesday 6pm, Thursday 5pm. **All times listed in Central time** Monday, January 9, 2017 Live Streaming Begins 9:00am -   9:30am  Weather Briefing: Dale Eck - Director, Global Forecast Center, The Weather Company  9:30am - 11:00am Session 1: Dr. Mitch Goldberg - Chief Scienti...

EAGLE WATCH 2016-2017!   As of Tuesday morning, people across the country have been anxiously awaiting the arrival of 2 eaglet chicks, while parent eagles Harriett and M15 (replaced Ozzie) take turns incubating them. This camera is live from Southwest Florida through Dick Pritchett Real Estate.   To view more and chat with experts, click here:  http://www.swfleaglecam.com/ 2PM Thursday Update:  The babies are almost here! Cracks have been identified on one, maybe both of the eggs! Here is picture I captured while mama was up moving around. When the eggs start to hatch, she stays up off of them more often! 2:00 PM Wednesday Update:  Still waiting for the eggs to hatch. Caught another glimpse off the eggs today at M15 got up to  stretch and roll the eggs.  2:00 PM Tuesday Update: I caught this view of Harriett this afternoon as she took over the nest and incubating the eggs for a while. She likes to lay with her ...

Wednesday PM Update:   A fast moving storm system will bring messy weather for the upcoming and last full Christmas shopping weekend. There is a small chance that it will include wintry weather for parts of the Local 6 area but most of the precipitation will come in the form of rain showers and a few thunderstorms.  Very cold air will be in place Thursday but then milder air will begin to push in Friday during the day giving us highs in the 40's. By sunset Friday, temperatures may briefly drop into the 30's and lead to the advancing rain mixing with a little sleet, mainly in Missouri. All precipitation will turn to rain as temperatures then rise to near 60 degree during the day on Saturday. The cold front will then approach Saturday evening bringing the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms, then arctic air to follow. This is when rain showers may turn to snow showers as the colder air arrives behind the front overnight. Where snow showers persist, a coating wi...

Sunday AM Update: In addition to the information posted Friday night, here is a look at the latest rainfall projections. Some areas may see locally a little more that what the computer model is showing but this gives you an idea of what to expect as rain moves in late tonight and Monday.  Right now there is a threat for storms to become severe to our South but we will be keeping an eye on NW Tennessee and the MO Bootheel to see if any of those storms drift northward amidst the axis of greatest warmth and moisture. I've included the severe storm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center below the rainfall totals. Preparedness reminders are also posted below.  Friday PM Update: Moderate drought conditions have plagued the Local 6 area for most of meteorological Fall (Sep-Nov). As we wrap up the month of November we'll also be in the midst of a heavy rain event set to begin late Sunday and Monday and continue through Tuesday. There is also a small chance of rain on ...

By the end of March 2013, we were more than ready to put Winter behind us after bitterly cold temperatures hanging on and periods of snow blanketing the area. We were influenced by a weak La Nina episode and arctic air was readily available to the Eastern United States. Currently the Climate Prediction Center is in "La Nina Watch" mode with a 70% chance of development this Fall and continuing into Winter 2016-2017. A record El Nino episode came to an end early in the Summer and we have been in a neutral period for a couple of months now. Signs of continued cooling in the Pacific waters off the coast of South America points to the likely development of a weak La Nina episode for the cool season. The reason we look at El Nino and La Nina episodes is because it has a direct impact on the overall weather pattern across North America. It gives us guidance. During La Nina, we tend to see colder winters and a higher likelihood of stormy (wintry) weather. Temperatures d...