Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Thursday Evening Update: A Flash Flood WATCH has been issued and includes all of Western Kentucky, NW Tennessee, MO Bootheel, and the Ohio River counties in Southern IL. The heaviest rain is expected to start moving in very late Thursday night and during the day on Friday. Highest rainfall totals are still expected to sit along the Ohio River counties back into the Bootheel. The specific placement of the highest rainfall may shift northward or southward depending on exact path of low pressure moving across our area and how fast the cold front to our north will advance tomorrow. Wednesday Evening Update: The remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy will begin to quickly impact the Local 6 area starting Thursday morning across the south half of the area then spreading northward. While we may see some periods of gusty winds, even a quick, short-lived tornadic spin-up, but the overwhelming threat to the entire are will be very heavy rain and flash flooding from Thursday into Friday ...

SATURDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY A rather strong storm system will take aim on the Local 6 area Saturday and Saturday night. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MODERATE RISK for an outbreak of severe weather. Several rounds of storms will be possible and as many people are looking to get outdoors for the long holiday weekend, storms may threaten at times.  A first round is expected to moving through during the overnight hours Friday night into early Saturday morning with a low risk for severe. This changes dramatically Saturday afternoon and evening as a complex of storms develops over Missouri during the heat of the afternoon, while the atmosphere becomes highly unstable and ripe for widespread outbreak. This second round should move out by sunset while a third possible complex of storms develops again over Missouri and moves east from around 10pm into the very early morning hours of Sunday.  The weather may change very quickly wherever you are tomorrow ...

With an increase in heavy downpours across the Midwest and Southeast over the past 50 years it has become vital that we continue to look for advanced ways to track the threat of flooding events. The main goal is to give people as much advanced notice as possible so that they can prepare for rising water and be allowed time to get out of harms way. In December of 2015, I wrote an article featuring the products shown here and how they may become part of our future for flash flood forecasting. The National Severe Storms Laboratory has been conducting research (FLASH) focused on using simulated water flow to help better predict the likelihood of water rises along rivers and associated tributaries.  Below is an example of one of the products that the NSSL can display and it's archived data from the July 2015 flash flooding in the Paducah area. This particular product shows simulated surface water flow between 30 minutes before and 12 hours after a designated time. At the very start...

The dangerous high waters of the Mississippi have returned to threaten properties in the delta of this great river. For one area, the idea of taking on more water has become more and more a reality some are not willing embrace. In January of 2016 a three quarter mile section of the Len Small Levee was breached and then collapsed by flood waters from the Mississippi River. Water inundated farmland and left behind 10-foot sand deposits after it receded. Alexander County officials appealed to the St. Louis District Army Corps of Engineers and were denied the assistance to make the $16 million estimate cost of repair. Just this past month farmers considered a plan to rebuild the levee with their own equipment to take place in June. Time has now run out to repair the collapsed section of levee as the water rises quickly on the Mississippi River after a record amount of rain fell across many of its tributaries to the north.    I spoke to one resident in that area today who says...

Tuesday Evening Update: A few showers may make their way into our region early on Wednesday as the leading edge of moisture arrives from the west but the bulk of higher storm chances will enter our area by late afternoon and evening as a cold front draws closer. The areas drawn below also still look reasonable for storm chances this upcoming weekend with a heavy focus on a flooding threat Fri-Sun with repeated rounds of heavy rain expected. Monday Evening Update: A period of stormy weather is set to unfold for the second half of this week beginning late Wednesday night. Additional storms are then expected over the weekend. Here is a preliminary look at the timing and areas impacted. While the Spring severe weather season started early with the return of warmer weather in February, we've historically seen the most severe weather and tornadoes during the months of April and May. Along with the timeline you can find ways to keep your family prepared with a checklist at the botto...

Several rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to create very soggy conditions starting Thursday night and continue through Saturday afternoon. While it won't be possible to predict exactly which communities will see the highest rainfall totals by Saturday, the graphic below gives you a good idea of where most of the heaviest rain will set up. Lowland flooding will be likely and occasional flash flooding with be possible especially in Illinois and Missouri. Once rain reports start coming in, I'll compile a list to post here in this story. To submit a rainfall total to us, use the link on the right side of this page that says" Link to Submit". A Flood Watch has been issued for most of Southern Illinois and SE Missouri through Saturday afternoon.

THURSDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY Two rounds of strong, potentially severe storms will be possible Thursday as a particularly vigorous low pressure system heads from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Storms traveling across Missouri and Arkansas late Wednesday night will enter the Local 6 area before sunrise. Most of these storms will remain below severe limits but could prompt a few warnings before exiting the area by 9 AM. The most concerning time period for severe storms with a tornado risk arrives after noon and we expect a line of storms to develop over Southern Illinois extending south into Kentucky and Tennessee. They will move east by 6-7 PM. Given the expected nature of this bigger storm system, widespread severe storms will be likely if we get any sunshine after the morning round of storms passes. Here are a few graphics detailing the risks and Storm Prediction Center outlooks for severe storms...