Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

The beauty of fall can also bring indicators of how the surrounding environment is preparing  for the winter ahead. There are two popular folklore that people tend to look for this time of the year. The first being the woolly bear (Isabella tiger moth caterpillars). Their striking appearance usually catches your eye by late summer, thus spreading fears of an overly warm or particularly snowy winter. The fascination is fun but usually doesn't prove scientific unless you happen to find "the one" that lines up with the actual outcome of winter. They vary from region to region and are part of the bristled species of caterpillars which can lead to mis-identification. The image above shows how you can be sure you are spotting a true woolly bear and not an impostor.  To have some fun with the folklore of the little guy, here are a few tips:  Woolly bears have 13 segments made of black and orange and are known to represent the 13 weeks of winter. The front segment represe...

The Climate Prediction Center has entered into El Nino Watch with a 60% chance of episode development during the Fall (Sep-Nov) and a 70% chance of episode development by Winter (Dec-Feb). Meteorologists monitor the status of El Nino and La Nina because it can have a direct impact on the large-scale weather pattern over the United States, especially during the Summer and Winter months. The following two graphics show how temperatures and precipitation are typically impacted by an El Nino episode during the winter months.  Winters tend to be warmer than normal and precipitation stays fairly average. The two maps compare previous winter El Nino episodes to the long-term average from 1950-2007. NOAA/NCDC - Click to enlarge Forecasting into the season ahead can be more accurate when looking to similar weather patterns of the past. Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological...

The National Phenology Network is showing the early arrival of leaves on trees in the Ohio Valley, the Midwest, and Western United States this year. This trend has become more of a norm over the past past 50 years.   Climate Central published data this week showing the same trend since 1970 with notable attention to the West where states are seeing as many as 17 more frost-free days, extending the growing season. Here in the Local 6 area, the growth is not as notable but still averaging between 4-9 days additional to the growing season. Why does this matter? Aside from having an influence on which plants are suitable for planting zones, it has a much higher societal impact by extending the allergy season.  "As the climate warms from the increase of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the last spring freeze is trending earlier and the first fall freeze is coming later. This means the growing season is getting longer, and so is the pollen season— whether it i...

Tuesday Morning Update: The morning update has brought a slightly larger risk area and a new outlines tornado risk area that includes areas of Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois, and counties along the MS River in Missouri and Tennessee. That is shown in the second graphic below .  Monday Evening Update: Monday Morning Update: These updates were anticipated further down in the blog from Sunday evening's post...The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our area to a slight/enhanced risk for severe storms on Tuesday. Here is the latest outlook graphic as of Monday morning.  Sunday Evening Update:   A vigorous cold front will stream across the Local 6 are and Midwest on Tuesday bringing the threat for strong to severe storms. The subtropical jet stream will be supplying moisture and strong winds/lift by early Tuesday across the region. As an area of low pressure passes just to our north it will allow the return flow of warm, moist air at th...

From KY Department of Transportation KY 1255 (Bonds Road) on McCracken/Graves County line - covered with water KY 131 (Said Road) on McCracken/Graves County line - covered with water KY 787/Bryant Ford Road has High Water signs posted between the 0 and 1mm at the McCrakcen-Marshall County Line  Crittenden County KY 91 @ 11mm- Cave-in-Rock Ferry CLOSED due to High Water* Fulton County KY 94 is OPEN between the 7 and 11mm west of the City of Hickman  Livingston County KY 137/River Rd is CLOSED to through traffic from 5.28mm at KY 763 intersection to15.45mm at KY 133 due to Water Over Road in numerous locations, KY 917 has High Water signs post at 7 to 7.2mm Lyon County KY 819/Sunshine Loop is CLOSED at the 2 to 3mm due to Water Over Road- Signs Posted Marshall County KY 1492/Benton-Birmingham Rd is CLOSED between the 0 and 1.2mm Due to Water Over Road- Signs Posted Hickman County KY 123 is CLOSED between the 14 and 16mm Due to Water Over Road- Signs Posted ...

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE: A Flood WATCH is now in effect for the entire Local 6 area and will run until Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening over Missouri and Illinois then move eastward overnight. A cold front will then sit stationary allowing a prolonged period of rain across the entire area.  Be sure to check the river forecast summaries and forecast map links a the bottom of this blog for the latest waterway outlook. MONDAY EVENING UPDATE: Periods of recurring heavy rains will become a pattern over the next couple of weeks in the Local 6 area. When this type of activity and weather pattern sets up this time of year along with warmer temperatures allowing the ground to thaw, we start to see an increased risk for flooding and rising river levels. Excessive rainfall about two weeks ago in the TN Valley forced Barkley and Kentucky Dams to activate all gates to alleviate rising lake levels and send water down to the Ohio River. The Ohio River...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Only minor adjustments to the placement of ice accumulations are necessary for the evening and overnight forecast. A Winter Weather ADVISORY is in effect for much of Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois, and parts of TN and MO. An Ice Storm WARNING is in effect for a few counties in Southeast Missouri. Both alerts are on the map to the right. MONDAY EVENING UPDATE: Another round of wintry weather is expected in the form of rain, snow, and freezing rain starting later Tuesday and continue into early Wednesday. Much like the first wintry system we experienced this year, much of the precipitation will be in the form of rain, freezing rain and sleet. Starting early Tuesday evening, rain and sleet will overspread the area pretty quickly and possibly even switch over to all rain for an hour or two, especially south of the Ohio River. During the overnight hours we are expecting temperatures to hover around the freezing mark. Where temperatures drop below fre...