Cold Air Invades Again

Global Temperature Anomaly 2014 (Map 1)
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Frigid air is about to infiltrate the eastern US again bringing the feel of Winter back to the Local 6 area starting this week.

Since the end of 2013, a La Nina-Neutral influenced weather pattern has left the eastern Lower 48 under a trof of colder than normal temperatures. (See Map 1)

Only recently (past few months) the La Nina-Neutral pattern has transitioned to El Nino-Neutral allowing for a loosening of that grip on some of the central states. (See Map 2)

Global Temperature Anomaly January 1 - February 9, 2015 (Map 2)
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With warm, dry weather continuing to supply the positive feedback mechanism in the West, slight changes in the overall weather pattern are not likely to break that cycle, especially headed into the warm seasons.....and this is just one way to look at it. We may consider that the seasonal transitions may help "wobble" the dividing line and break the consistent nature of this pattern. We may also consider that El Nino will strenghthen, leaving hope for a larger pattern change.

In layman's terms, the hot and dry condition of the West will be difficult to change unless we see a large shift in one of the global weather patterns. An El Nino influenced pattern may help drive moisture into the West then breaking up the drought and heat. The Climate Prediction Center projects a 50-60% chance of that happening by Spring but only weak signs have appeared thus far. Time will tell.

Below is the 8-14 day temperature outlook for the Lower 48 and it showcases the continued pattern we have endured for months. The deeper shades of red and blue identify areas likely to see well-below / well-above average temperatures during the time period. For the Local 6 area, another freezing period seems likely by the end of this week and may persist into much of next week.

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Mid-South Winter Outlook 2023-2024

Getting a general idea of what the upcoming Winter months (December, January and February) will look like for our region can be heavily influenced by El Nino and La Nina episodes. Global and oceanic forecasters have observed El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and an EL NINO ADVISORY has been issued. The episode is expected to continue through Spring (March, April and May) in the Northern Hemisphere. Model projections are pointing to a strong, possibly very strong episode occurrence. (Current Sea Surface Temps warming off S. America) Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological Winter. An average winter in the Local 6 area shows an average temperature of 37 degrees, average precipitation total of 12.18" and average snowfall of 8.4". The National Weather Service in Paducah has historical data that covers 7 of the past strongest El Nino episodes in the past

Planting Zones Heading North

As our global climate changes, so does our planting zones, helping us determine which flowers/shrubs/trees are hardy in specific areas. The Local 6 area has always been split by 2-3 growing zones so placement becomes very important to those in the agricultural community. The image below represents the average over the past 30 years. Climate Central published the following information: "What kinds of flowers, shrubs and trees you’ll find at your local nursery depends on your climate — how warm it tends to get in summer, and how cold in winter. A plant that’s happy in Wisconsin might be miserable in Alabama, and vice versa. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has formalized these differences into " hardiness zones " — strips of similar climate that run more or less east-to-west (except in the high mountains), where particular plants should do especially well. But as the planet warms under its thickening blanket of greenhouse gases, those zones are shifting northward. Th

Update: Impacts From Tropical Depression Bill

Friday AM Update Heavy rain still appears to be our greatest concern as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill pass directly over the Local 6 area throughout the day today. A Flash Flood WATCH continues for Southern Illinois, SE Missouri, and the Ohio River counties in Western Kentucky through Saturday. Here is a look at today's forecast concerning rainfall totals from the Weather/Hydrological Prediction Center. In any given area, 2-4 inches of rain will be possible. Low-lying areas are most prone to flash flooding. Showers and storms will increase in coverage and intensity during the day on Friday. Keep preparedness and awareness in mind as heavy rain moves in. Locate areas of higher ground in the event you need to retreat there. Never drive across flooded roadways. Keep children from playing in flood waters. Water depth and swiftness is difficult to determine. Below is the latest Flash Flooding Potential Briefing from the Paducah National Weather Service.

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