Thursday, February 27, 2014

Wintry Weather for Sun-Mon

Sat Afternoon Update: 
New winter weather alerts that into effect tonight. Start wrapping up preparations! 

Fri PM Update:

Confidence continues to grow and point toward the winter storm threat of icing. Winter Storm WATCHES were issued by the National Weather Service this morning and afternoon including all of the Local 6 area now. The timing below still looks fairly in-line with the forecast that we have been showing for a couple of days. Here is a closer look at ice accumulation totals and the impact index of ice.

Be sure to continue your preparations tomorrow before the winter storm really moves in on Sunday and look for additional updates here. There may be a few small changes but the weather models have been pretty locked in on the Ohio River counties for higher totals for several cycles now.

In addition to ice accumulation, snow and sleet will also accumulate making for an icy mix on roadways. While sleet and snowfall will be a secondary concern to the icing, here is a look at projected forcast accumulations of snow/sleet:


Quick Friday Morning Update:
A Winter Storm WATCH has been issued for part of the Local 6 area including counties along the Ohio River in WKY and northward into IL/MO. This matches up well with the ice accumulation projection graphic below. Some minor changes may still come over the next 48 hours so stay in tune with weather over the weekend. Here is a regional look at the WATCH:


Thu Update:

Winter's foot is stuck in the door allowing for another wintry storm system to impact the area on Sunday through Monday. Much of the area will see the onset of precipitation primarily in the form of rain as temperatures will begin above freezing on Sunday morning. Temperatures will drop quickly during the afternoon bringing the freezing line south to the Ohio River by noon, then down toward the Purchase Pkwy by late afternoon.

6AM Sunday - NAM Model

 The 3 graphics to the right show the general transition that one of the computer models has been projecting. Pink areas indicate sleet/freezing rain and green represents rain. This will pretty much be an all day event and even continue into early Monday as the entire system wraps up with a chance for a few snow showers.
Noon Sunday - NAM Model

Ice accumulations should range from 1/4" to 1/2" in the areas that stay in the pink area longer. Sleet accumulation could also be moderate from 1-2" making for an icy mixture. The more sleet we see, the more impact we will have on the roads. The more freezing rain we see, the higher the impact on power lines and tree limbs.
9PM Sunday - NAM Model

The onset of rain before switching over to a wintry mix may also render the road pretreatment less helpful. Those areas will likely be south of the Ohio River into KY and TN. Here is a look at the ice accumulation projected by one of the weather models but seems to be pretty consistent showing the highest impact zone along the Ohio River and north into IL/MO. This line will undoubtedly shift as we get closer to the event but as always, the Local 6 area will be split by winter weather somehow and prepping now will get you ready for any scenario. Look for daily updates back here on this post.

Ice Accumulation by 9AM Monday - GFS Model



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