Skip to main content

Wintry Weather for Sun-Mon

Sat Afternoon Update: 
New winter weather alerts that into effect tonight. Start wrapping up preparations! 


Fri PM Update:


Confidence continues to grow and point toward the winter storm threat of icing. Winter Storm WATCHES were issued by the National Weather Service this morning and afternoon including all of the Local 6 area now. The timing below still looks fairly in-line with the forecast that we have been showing for a couple of days. Here is a closer look at ice accumulation totals and the impact index of ice.

Be sure to continue your preparations tomorrow before the winter storm really moves in on Sunday and look for additional updates here. There may be a few small changes but the weather models have been pretty locked in on the Ohio River counties for higher totals for several cycles now.

In addition to ice accumulation, snow and sleet will also accumulate making for an icy mix on roadways. While sleet and snowfall will be a secondary concern to the icing, here is a look at projected forcast accumulations of snow/sleet:

 





Quick Friday Morning Update:
A Winter Storm WATCH has been issued for part of the Local 6 area including counties along the Ohio River in WKY and northward into IL/MO. This matches up well with the ice accumulation projection graphic below. Some minor changes may still come over the next 48 hours so stay in tune with weather over the weekend. Here is a regional look at the WATCH:

 

Thu Update:

Winter's foot is stuck in the door allowing for another wintry storm system to impact the area on Sunday through Monday. Much of the area will see the onset of precipitation primarily in the form of rain as temperatures will begin above freezing on Sunday morning. Temperatures will drop quickly during the afternoon bringing the freezing line south to the Ohio River by noon, then down toward the Purchase Pkwy by late afternoon.

6AM Sunday - NAM Model

 The 3 graphics to the right show the general transition that one of the computer models has been projecting. Pink areas indicate sleet/freezing rain and green represents rain. This will pretty much be an all day event and even continue into early Monday as the entire system wraps up with a chance for a few snow showers.
Noon Sunday - NAM Model

Ice accumulations should range from 1/4" to 1/2" in the areas that stay in the pink area longer. Sleet accumulation could also be moderate from 1-2" making for an icy mixture. The more sleet we see, the more impact we will have on the roads. The more freezing rain we see, the higher the impact on power lines and tree limbs.
9PM Sunday - NAM Model

The onset of rain before switching over to a wintry mix may also render the road pretreatment less helpful. Those areas will likely be south of the Ohio River into KY and TN. Here is a look at the ice accumulation projected by one of the weather models but seems to be pretty consistent showing the highest impact zone along the Ohio River and north into IL/MO. This line will undoubtedly shift as we get closer to the event but as always, the Local 6 area will be split by winter weather somehow and prepping now will get you ready for any scenario. Look for daily updates back here on this post.

Ice Accumulation by 9AM Monday - GFS Model

 






 









Comments

Dan Collyer said…
If you are interested the East Coast of Australia is about to be hit by a superstorm, follow the link below for more info.I live in the cyclone Ita affected area, so i decided to start a blog video journaling the effects of the cyclone. I am hoping & crossing my fingers my home remains intact. My Blog Is here if you want the latest from a local perspective! http://cycloneita.blogspot.com.au

Popular posts from this blog

Mid-South Winter Outlook 2023-2024

Getting a general idea of what the upcoming Winter months (December, January and February) will look like for our region can be heavily influenced by El Nino and La Nina episodes. Global and oceanic forecasters have observed El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and an EL NINO ADVISORY has been issued. The episode is expected to continue through Spring (March, April and May) in the Northern Hemisphere. Model projections are pointing to a strong, possibly very strong episode occurrence.  (Current Sea Surface Temps warming off S. America) Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological Winter. An average winter in the Local 6 area shows an average temperature of 37 degrees, average precipitation total of 12.18" and average snowfall of 8.4". The National Weather Service in Paducah has historical data that covers 7 of the past strongest El Nino episodes in the past

Planting Zones Heading North

As our global climate changes, so does our planting zones, helping us determine which flowers/shrubs/trees are hardy in specific areas. The Local 6 area has always been split by 2-3 growing zones so placement becomes very important to those in the agricultural community. The image below represents the average over the past 30 years. Climate Central published the following information:  "What kinds of flowers, shrubs and trees you’ll find at your local nursery depends on your climate — how warm it tends to get in summer, and how cold in winter. A plant that’s happy in Wisconsin might be miserable in Alabama, and vice versa. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has formalized these differences into " hardiness zones " — strips of similar climate that run more or less east-to-west (except in the high mountains), where particular plants should do especially well. But as the planet warms under its thickening blanket of greenhouse gases, those zones are shifting northward. Th

Update: Impacts From Tropical Depression Bill

Friday AM Update Heavy rain still appears to be our greatest concern as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill pass directly over the Local 6 area throughout the day today. A Flash Flood WATCH continues for Southern Illinois, SE Missouri, and the Ohio River counties in Western Kentucky through Saturday. Here is a look at today's forecast concerning rainfall totals from the Weather/Hydrological Prediction Center. In any given area, 2-4 inches of rain will be possible. Low-lying areas are most prone to flash flooding. Showers and storms will increase in coverage and intensity during the day on Friday.  Keep preparedness and awareness in mind as heavy rain moves in. Locate areas of higher ground in the event you need to retreat there. Never drive across flooded roadways. Keep children from playing in flood waters. Water depth and swiftness is difficult to determine. Below is the latest Flash Flooding Potential Briefing from the Paducah National Weather Service.