Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Signs might be pointing to El Nino moving past it's peak intensity for this particular episode while moving toward a neutral phase by Spring. Below is an animation that showed the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino episode then toward the very end starts to show a drop in Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. This may very well be a signal of El Nino weakening. This same trend has also been picked up in forecast computer models projecting a neutral phase by late Spring and even suggesting a weak La Nina phase by late Summer. Below is a look at the latest computer model projections all the way through the start of Fall 2016. Each line color represents a different model forecast. The closer the line is to "zero" the more neutral the phase is expected. The solid yellow line is the average of all the model forecasts. Most of the models agree on an El Nino phase (positive 0.5+) until the AMJ (April-May-June) time frame. This would suggest a slowly weakening El Nino through...

Wednesday September 9, 2015 Update: Created by Jennifer Rukavina via NOAA/ESRL Data The current trend will continue as NOAA continues to forecast a strong El Nino episode through late Winter and possibly Spring 2016. The following two graphics show on a map what I have detailed below about "Notable El Nino Episodes for Winter". Winters tend to be warmer than normal and precipitation stays fairly average. The two maps compare the previously mentioned winter El Nino episodes to the long-term average from 1950-2007. Created by Jennifer Rukavina via NOAA/ESRL Data August 21, 2015 Original Post Forecasting into the season ahead is most accurate when looking to similar weather patterns of the past. As you have probably seen in the news El Nino is expected to strengthen into the upcoming fall and winter. I've done a little digging into the historical record to find out how we have fared during similar El Nino episodes. Here is what I was able to fin...

Thanks to cloud cover and a persistent trough (dip in the jet stream) over the Eastern US, the start to June has been anything BUT summer-like and rather cool. After day 3, temperatures returned to near normal, and compact storm complexes have begun their annual dive south toward our area. Over the next two weeks it appears that a fairly zonal (a lack of big pattern swings) will set up across the Lower 48. This is why both maps below show "near normal" conditions in their outlooks for Mid-June.  So what is "normal" for the Paducah area for Mid-June? From the 12th through the 18th we typically see temperatures average 86 for highs and 65 for lows. Average precipitation amounts to 0.91" at the Paducah Barkley (PAH) location.   So far the influence of El Nino has been fairly weak which was expected as El Nino is still in its weakest stage. On a larger scale, its very definition has brought warmer waters off the western coast of South America, which has he...

From multiple flash flood events to a dramatic recovery of the worst drought in Western Kentucky's history, our changing seasons are seemingly becoming more extreme. The 2013 National Climate Assessment shows that extreme heavy precipitation events are becoming more common across the SE Unites States. In June alone, the WPSD Local 6 area was impacted by 4 flash flood events and June 2013 became the 5th wettest on record. South Fulton, Tennessee, Paducah, Kentucky, and Madisonville/Mortons Gap, Kentucky all suffered damage from short duration heavy precipitation events. One of the wettest June's on record was anything but expected after one of the country's worst droughts devastated most of Western Kentucky's corn and soybean crop. As we begin the month of July, the USDA reports that the corn & soybean crops of Kentucky and Tennessee rank as the best in the US. Thanks to a wet and mild spring/summer farmers are staying positive for a bumper crop to recoup 201...

 CPC/NOAA March Temp Outlook Officially Spring begins on Wednesday, March 20th but for record keeping's sake, Meteorologists begin keeping track of the season on March 1st. The newest climate outlook for March was released today and our "average" February temps may just take us right into the entire month of March. The latest maps are shown to the right.   With the current weather pattern holding pretty tight, it looks as though temps will remain relatively cool or close to average for at least the first half of March. There are some signals in the long range forecast showing a warming trend to our west.  As for precipitation the trend looks a little wetter than average and that does not really deviate much from how we have begun 2013. January was the wettest on record at the Paducah National Weather Service and February ran almost exactly average.    CPC/NOAA March Precip Outlook  This type of outlook leaves me wonder...

It seems as though we are literally just scratching the surface when making strides recovering from Drought 2012. The latest drought monitor shows us in the clear from a classified drought but long term problem runs deeper. As of February 13, 2013, 2,333 primary counties within the United States were designated for 2012 Crop Disaster Losses through the USDA with another 423 contiguous counties following last year's historic drought. New research was released this week from the University of Missouri School of Natural Resources It showed the soils of the Midwest that suffered exceptional drought may take up to two years to fully recover.   At the Paducah National Weather Service, January precipitation was well above normal and ended up being the wettest on record. Much of the Midwest has also seen an uptick in frequency of precipitation but Randall Miles (MU Soil Science Associate Professor) says, "What we may be sinking into the soil now may not get down to the, l...