Saturday, June 6, 2015

Mid-June Temp/Precip Outlook

Thanks to cloud cover and a persistent trough (dip in the jet stream) over the Eastern US, the start to June has been anything BUT summer-like and rather cool. After day 3, temperatures returned to near normal, and compact storm complexes have begun their annual dive south toward our area. Over the next two weeks it appears that a fairly zonal (a lack of big pattern swings) will set up across the Lower 48. This is why both maps below show "near normal" conditions in their outlooks for Mid-June. So what is "normal" for the Paducah area for Mid-June? From the 12th through the 18th we typically see temperatures average 86 for highs and 65 for lows. Average precipitation amounts to 0.91" at the Paducah Barkley (PAH) location. 

So far the influence of El Nino has been fairly weak which was expected as El Nino is still in its weakest stage. On a larger scale, its very definition has brought warmer waters off the western coast of South America, which has helped to sustain and even strengthen Hurricane Blanca near the Baja. This may actually enhance a monsoon-like season for the Desert SW and eventually spread a little moisture our way by mid-June.  According to the Climate Prediction Center, "there is an approximately 90% chance that El NiƱo conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015." 

Until El Nino conditions strengthen more, the Local 6 area will probably see little affect. The overall slightly cooler or average conditions will remain and a stream of moisture to bring occasional showers and storms appears likely for the summer season. The risk for widespread drought is currently low except where typical for late July/August.

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