Friday, April 24, 2015

Dangerous Saturday Storms

SATURDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY!

Friday PM Update:
Looks like another stormy start to the weekend with a heightened risk for severe weather as well for Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has included the entire Local 6 area in the SLIGHT RISK and even put most of Kentucky in the elevated ENHANCED RISK for Saturday, mainly for the afternoon and evening hours. Continue to monitor the outlook updates starting Saturday morning. The National Weather Service in Paducah has confirmed that the Storm Prediction Center may upgrade part of the area to a MODERATE RISK. 
Here is the Friday forecast timeline from the Paducah Bational Weather Service:
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Thursday Severe Storm Risk

THURSDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY!

Wednesday Afternoon Update:

The entire Local 6 area is now included in the outlook for an ENHANCED RISK for severe weather for Thursday - Thursday night. This is an upgrade from what the Storm Prediction Center had earlier today. You can also see just below the map what the different risk categories mean to you. See below for timing and additional details.

Wednesday Update:

An active weather pattern continues to bring strong storms to the region this week with a greater risk arriving on Thursday and Thursday night. A strong cold front will move in from the Central Plains and Upper Midwest during the day on Thursday. Ahead of the front, very warm, moist and unstable air will lead to thunderstorm development rapidly Thursday evening. 

The images to the left show the forecast radar imagery for different time periods starting at 6PM on Thursday evening.

The cold front should clear the Local 6 area around Midnight and take the severe weather threat along with it. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with the line of storms but hail and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially associated with storms that develop out ahead of the main line along the cold front. 

Preparedness is important and severe weather safety should be reviewed before storms develop late tomorrow afternoon. Be alert to quickly changing weather conditions throughout the day tomorrow and make sure your weather radio has fresh batteries and is programmed ready to go. 

The Storm Prediction Center has most of our area outlined in a SLIGHT RISK and parts of the area (IL/MO) in an ENHANCED RISK. See the map below:

Storm Prediction Center Outlook for Thursday - Thursday Night