Sunday, November 4, 2018

Risk for Severe Storms Monday Night


Nocturnal severe storms and tornadoes have always been part of our weather history during the Fall season and is why we stress the importance of prepared during our second severe weather season.

Monday evening and night will bring our next chance for severe storms to the Local 6 area. The Storm Prediction Center has included the Local 6 area in the SLIGHT RISK category for Monday evening/night. Will update if that information changes. Kentucky and Tennessee will see the greatest chance of storms turning severe.

As for timing, the threat for severe storms increases as the sun goes down Monday evening. The dynamics for severe storms peak around 5pm to 10pm across the Local 6 area. We may have a few severe storms outside of that time period but the greatest risk for widespread coverage will be during that window. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with the forecast wind shear that will be present in our region.
Be sure to keep mobile alerts audible Monday night, check and refresh your weather radio and review severe weather safety plans before storms develop.

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Fall Folklore

The beauty of fall can also bring indicators of how the surrounding environment is preparing for the winter ahead. There are two popular folklore that people tend to look for this time of the year. The first being the woolly bear (Isabella tiger moth caterpillars). Their striking appearance usually catches your eye by late summer, thus spreading fears of an overly warm or particularly snowy winter. The fascination is fun but usually doesn't prove scientific unless you happen to find "the one" that lines up with the actual outcome of winter. They vary from region to region and are part of the bristled species of caterpillars which can lead to mis-identification. The image above shows how you can be sure you are spotting a true woolly bear and not an impostor. 
To have some fun with the folklore of the little guy, here are a few tips: 
  1. Woolly bears have 13 segments made of black and orange and are known to represent the 13 weeks of winter.
  2. The front segment represents the start of winter, the middle segments represent the middle weeks of winter, and so forth.
  3. The position and length of the orange bands signify when and how long a warm period (weeks) will occur during the winter. 

Another popular folklore that think of when using nature to predict an upcoming winter is the persimmon seed. When a persimmon seed if cut in half, it reveals a kernel in the distinct shape of a spoon, knife, or fork. Each of those shapes are believed to represent a type of average winter condition we can expect ahead. Here is a guide to identifying the shapes and their meanings:

  1. Knife: Very cold and icy. Winds will "cut" right through you.
  2. Fork: Warm and dry. Powdery, light snow is possible.
  3. Spoon: Cold and snowy. Snow to "shovel" can be expected.

Pictured below is a set of persimmon seeds I cut open last fall that I collected from multiple fruits from a tree at Noble Park. Despite the outlook of a slightly milder winter per NOAA, the seeds I dissected gave the "spoon" and "knife" appearance in most cases. One seed produced a fork-like shape. 
I'd love to see what you are collecting in your part of the Local 6 area so we can compare notes and see if folklore can verify this upcoming winter!