Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Excessive Rain Threat Wed-Thu

Wednesday AM Update:

An early round of showers continues to move east across the area this morning in advance of the heavier showers and storms arriving later today and overnight. The Paducah National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood WATCH for much of Western Kentucky, Southeast Missouri and parts of Southern Illinois. Here is the latest map (right). 
Area-wide we could pick up 1-3" of rain but where heavy rain persists or trains over the same areas, there is the possibility of somebody recording 4-5". Southeast Missouri, far Western Kentucky, and counties along the Mississippi River appear to be at highest risk for those higher totals.
Flash flooding and river flooding will be the highest concern with this storm system. People who live near the Big Muddy and Cache Rivers in IL, the Black, St. Francois and Current Rivers in MO, the Obion River in TN and the numerous creeks in KY such as the Clarks, Obion, Cypress, and Perkins should be alert to fast rising waters during this event.

Tuesday PM Update:

Several rounds of heavy rain are going to be possible starting Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday. A Flash Flood WATCH has been issued for parts of MO as of Tuesday evening. The National Weather Service may issue a WATCH for parts of the Local 6 area by Wednesday morning in advance of the rain arriving.
Area-wide we could pick up 1-3" of rain but where heavy rain persists or trains over the same areas, there is the possibility of somebody recording 4-5". Southeast Missouri, far Western Kentucky, and counties along the Mississippi River appear to be at highest risk for those higher totals.
Flash flooding and river flooding will be the highest concern with this storm system. People who live near the Big Muddy and Cache Rivers in IL, the Black, St. Francois and Current Rivers in MO, the Obion River in TN and the numerous creeks in KY such as the Obion, Cypress, and Perkins should be alert to fast rising waters during this event. Here are the latest forecast graphics as of Tuesday night.

Weather Prediction Center Accumulated Rainfall Forecast Thru Thursday



Thursday, June 25, 2015

Strong Storms Breaking the High Heat


Friday Midday Update:

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most of the Local 6 area to an ENHANCED RISK of severe storms today. The threats still include damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. 
The timing still looks pretty accurate according to the forecast images below. We anticipate scattered storms to develop and move east by early afternoon. A more organized line of possibly severe storms should develop over Missouri by early evening and push east before midnight tonight.

Thursday Evening Update:

Periods of high heat and humidity have been with us for a couple weeks now peaking today before showers and thunderstorms begin spreading into the Local 6 area late tonight and throughout the day on Friday. A cold front will push south across our area and bring lower humidity and cooler temperatures to get the weekend started.
A few strong storms may skirt our area Thursday Night then redevelop by midday on Friday and bring along the threat of damaging winds, hail and even an isolated tornado. An additional threat is flash flooding. Our ground is fairly saturated so heavy rainfall may collect quickly in low lying areas. Any given thunderstorm may produce 1-2" of rainfall. Total rainfall may reach beyond that amount but the duration of rain should not be prolonged.
Below is a general model forecast for what may unfold tomorrow. I believe showers and storms will be possible anytime throughout the day but a final push of stronger storms is looking more likely by Friday evening. Be alert to quickly changing conditions throughout the day and make sure to enable your mobile alerts and weather radio to receive warnings in the event that you may be in the path of these storms.