Skip to main content

Mid-South Winter Outlook 2023-2024

Getting a general idea of what the upcoming Winter months (December, January and February) will look like for our region can be heavily influenced by El Nino and La Nina episodes. Global and oceanic forecasters have observed El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and an EL NINO ADVISORY has been issued. The episode is expected to continue through Spring (March, April and May) in the Northern Hemisphere. Model projections are pointing to a strong, possibly very strong episode occurrence. 

(Current Sea Surface Temps warming off S. America)

Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological Winter. An average winter in the Local 6 area shows an average temperature of 37 degrees, average precipitation total of 12.18" and average snowfall of 8.4".

The National Weather Service in Paducah has historical data that covers 7 of the past strongest El Nino episodes in the past 75 years (according to current forecast trends).

The similar El Nino episodes include the winters of 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. In each episode, temperatures averaged close to or above normal. In these 7 cases, the stronger the El Nino episode, the warmer the winter averaged. 

WINTER 1997-1998 and WINTER 2015-2016 were both classified as very strong episodes and temperatures averaged about 3-4 degrees warmer for the winter season. Both fall under the Top 10 warmest winters on record at Paducah. 

As for snow, past El Nino episodes did not produce any exceptionally snowy seasons. In fact, the stronger the episodes, the greater likelihood of a snow drought. It did however lead to average to above average precipitation in a few cases. It makes sense that in a warmer season, there are less opportunities to produce snowfall. 

CONCLUSION: We are likely to see a winter with above average temperatures. Cold spells will still occur but not as frequent. We will have to observe where the subtropical jet stream settles in to know for sure whether our precipitation will be on the high side of normal or not. While the opportunities may be limited for snowy periods amongst a warmer than average season, it only takes one of those cold spells to create one single large snow event. (The only hope I can find for the snow-lovers out there!)

Here's what the Climate Prediction Center has released for Winter 2023-2024 (Dec-Jan-Feb)

 









Labels:
Location: 2536 Clark St, Paducah, KY 42003, USA

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Planting Zones Heading North

As our global climate changes, so does our planting zones, helping us determine which flowers/shrubs/trees are hardy in specific areas. The Local 6 area has always been split by 2-3 growing zones so placement becomes very important to those in the agricultural community. The image below represents the average over the past 30 years. Climate Central published the following information:  "What kinds of flowers, shrubs and trees you’ll find at your local nursery depends on your climate — how warm it tends to get in summer, and how cold in winter. A plant that’s happy in Wisconsin might be miserable in Alabama, and vice versa. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has formalized these differences into " hardiness zones " — strips of similar climate that run more or less east-to-west (except in the high mountains), where particular plants should do especially well. But as the planet warms under its thickening blanket of greenhouse gases, those zones are shifting northward. Th...
46 comments
Read more

Updates on Upcoming Winter Weather Events

Sunday Morning Update: A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for much of the WPSD Local 6 area with a handful of counties just reaching Winter Storm criteria. Here is the latest map. They are in effect until early Monday. Snowfall totals have not changed much from last nights posting and I really feel this will still just be a road impact for Monday morning. Here is the projected snowfall total map: Sorry, TN. Looks like another near miss on the snow for you. :( Saturday Night Update: A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the Paducah National Weather Service for most of the WPSD Local 6 area. Portions of NW TN and MO Bootheel have been placed under a Winter Weather Advisory all for winters weather on Sunday as colder air begins to arrive.   Rain will switch over to freezing rain, sleet, and snow during the day on Sunday eventually leading to accumulations in the watch/advisory areas. Initially any frozen precip will melt thanks to Saturday's mild temps and warmer pavement surfac...
4 comments
Read more

Longer Allergy Seasons

The National Phenology Network is showing the early arrival of leaves on trees in the Ohio Valley, the Midwest, and Western United States this year. This trend has become more of a norm over the past past 50 years.   Climate Central published data this week showing the same trend since 1970 with notable attention to the West where states are seeing as many as 17 more frost-free days, extending the growing season. Here in the Local 6 area, the growth is not as notable but still averaging between 4-9 days additional to the growing season. Why does this matter? Aside from having an influence on which plants are suitable for planting zones, it has a much higher societal impact by extending the allergy season.  "As the climate warms from the increase of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the last spring freeze is trending earlier and the first fall freeze is coming later. This means the growing season is getting longer, and so is the pollen season— whether it i...
4 comments
Read more