Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

The beauty of fall can also bring indicators of how the surrounding environment is preparing  for the winter ahead. There are two popular folklore that people tend to look for this time of the year. The first being the woolly bear (Isabella tiger moth caterpillars). Their striking appearance usually catches your eye by late summer, thus spreading fears of an overly warm or particularly snowy winter. The fascination is fun but usually doesn't prove scientific unless you happen to find "the one" that lines up with the actual outcome of winter. They vary from region to region and are part of the bristled species of caterpillars which can lead to mis-identification. The image above shows how you can be sure you are spotting a true woolly bear and not an impostor.  To have some fun with the folklore of the little guy, here are a few tips:  Woolly bears have 13 segments made of black and orange and are known to represent the 13 weeks of winter. The front segment represe

The Climate Prediction Center has entered into El Nino Watch with a 60% chance of episode development during the Fall (Sep-Nov) and a 70% chance of episode development by Winter (Dec-Feb). Meteorologists monitor the status of El Nino and La Nina because it can have a direct impact on the large-scale weather pattern over the United States, especially during the Summer and Winter months. The following two graphics show how temperatures and precipitation are typically impacted by an El Nino episode during the winter months.  Winters tend to be warmer than normal and precipitation stays fairly average. The two maps compare previous winter El Nino episodes to the long-term average from 1950-2007. NOAA/NCDC - Click to enlarge Forecasting into the season ahead can be more accurate when looking to similar weather patterns of the past. Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological Win