Tracking Possible Severe Weather Saturday

Saturday is a WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY

Friday Morning Update: The Storm Prediction Center has (for now) shifted the higher risk for severe storms slightly to our south. This may change back northward with updates out of their office forthcoming. Either way, strong damaging winds and a high risk for flooding still exists for the region on Saturday. Here’s the latest outlook:

Thursday Night Update:

For several days, there has been supportive weather data showing a favorable set-up for a severe weather outbreak on Saturday. Many ingredients are favorable for widespread wind damage, tornadoes and flooding starting during the early afternoon hours and progressing eastward through early evening. There may be clusters of storms followed by a final squall line before the system moves east out of our area Saturday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting the Local 6 area for several days now as an area of risk. Today, they outlined our area in an ENHANCED RISK (3 of 5). This may be upgraded as we get closer to the event itself. Here's a look at the current risk outlook.

There is a limiting factor or two with this system and while there is never 100% certainty that an outbreak of severe weather will happen, the given setup generally does allow for a window of time during the afternoon for this to take place right over the Local 6 area.

TIMING: Thursday night - Saturday morning, periods of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing. Late Saturday morning a final warm front will lift northward over our region giving us partial clearing, significant warming, and a favorable windshift to foster severe storm development. Severe storms will be possible from early afternoon to early evening. Here's a look at that window and the forecast radar imagery. This is just a guideline. Expect these times to adjust as we get closer to the event.

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