Monday, February 9, 2015

Cold Air Invades Again

Global Temperature Anomaly 2014 (Map 1)

Frigid air is about to infiltrate the eastern US again bringing the feel of Winter back to the Local 6 area starting this week. 

Since the end of 2013, a La Nina-Neutral influenced weather pattern has left the eastern Lower 48 under a trof of colder than normal temperatures. (See Map 1)

Only recently (past few months) the La Nina-Neutral pattern has transitioned to El Nino-Neutral allowing for a loosening of that grip on some of the central states. (See Map 2)

Global Temperature Anomaly January 1 - February 9, 2015 (Map 2)
With warm, dry weather continuing to supply the positive feedback mechanism in the West, slight changes in the overall weather pattern are not likely to break that cycle, especially headed into the warm seasons.....and this is just one way to look at it. We may consider that the seasonal transitions may help "wobble" the dividing line and break the consistent nature of this pattern. We may also consider that El Nino will strenghthen, leaving hope for a larger pattern change.

In layman's terms, the hot and dry condition of the West will be difficult to change unless we see a large shift in one of the global weather patterns. An El Nino influenced pattern may help drive moisture into the West then breaking up the drought and heat. The Climate Prediction Center projects a 50-60% chance of that happening by Spring but only weak signs have appeared thus far. Time will tell.

Below is the 8-14 day temperature outlook for the Lower 48 and it showcases the continued pattern we have endured for months. The deeper shades of red and blue identify areas likely to see well-below / well-above average temperatures during the time period. For the Local 6 area, another freezing period seems likely by the end of this week and may persist into much of next week.

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