Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Winter Storm #2, Flooding Threat


SATURDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY!

Friday PM Update:
Sleet and freezing rain continues to fall across much of the area and will switch between freezing rain and rain throughout the day on Saturday. A FLOOD WATCH is now in effect through Saturday evening. Ice covered snow will make it difficult for rain to soak into the soil below leaving us vulnerable to flash flooding and flooding of low lying areas. Here are the latest projected rainfall and ice accumulation totals:


















Thursday PM Update:
With the potential for ice accumulation, we may also want to be prepared for some sporadic power outages across our area. Here is an exclusive look at the Power Outage Risk Map for our area:
The time period for this map is Friday 11 PM to Saturday 10 PM

Thursday Afternoon Update:
New winter weather advisories will be going into effect tonight. Here is the latest advisory map:
In addition to wintry weather we are still very concerned about flooding & flash flooding potential for Saturday once temps rise above freezing. With drainage grates being blocked by snow and with no ample way for water to soak into the ground, flash flooding scenarios are possible anywhere across our region. We are expecting light snow/sleet/glaze accumulation Friday afternoon and night before switching over to rain. Here is a look at the timeline we are expecting for the upcoming weekend and this winter storm. 



Wednesday PM Update:
Extreme cold is making headlines for tonight and Thursday as arctic air spills into the region. Here is a look at the windchill trend for Wednesday night into Wednesday morning:
A Wind Chill Advisory continues through 9AM on Thursday morning. In addition to the Wind Chill Advisory, a Winter Storm WATCH has been issued for NW Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel. The latest advisories are listed below.
If you or someone you know needs a warm place to stay, here is a link to a list of local warming centers that we are aware of in the Local 6 region: WARMING CENTERS. 

On the heels of record cold temperatures, another winter storm is set to move through the region starting late Thursday night and continuing into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be well below freezing Thursday night and Friday making the onset of precipitation snow, sleet, and even freezing rain. We may even see snow and ice accumulation before precipitation switches over to rain Friday night and Saturday. Heavy rainfall will be possible Saturday which may lead to areas of flooding while snow and ice prevent water from saturating the ground below. Once cold air arrives once again on Sunday, another round of light snow accumulation will be possible. The graphic below outlines the timeline we are forecasting for the storm.

I will add potential snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain totals to this page on Thursday morning. Be prepared for another round of winter weather that will interrupt our daily routines all the way through the weekend ahead. If you live in a low-lying area, be alert of flooding potential on Saturday as temperatures reach just above freezing. The Paducah National Weather Service has put out this statement concerning the flooding potential:
"...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAW

MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY

RAINFALL...WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. A

FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOWPACK OVER THE
REGION COULD ADD ANOTHER ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RUNOFF WITH THE HEAVY RAINS.
THIS AMOUNT OF RUNOFF WILL EASILY OVERWHELM MANY DRAINAGE
SYSTEMS...RESULTING FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...IF A
SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF ICE DEVELOPS ON TOP OF THE SNOW FROM FREEZING
RAIN EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS COULD INSULATE THE SNOW
AND KEEP IT FROM MELTING. THE RUNOFF WOULD THEN BE FORCED DIRECTLY
INTO PLOWED ROADWAYS...RESULTING IN A VERY DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING SITUATION."

Preparedness for all aspects of this storm should come to completion by Thursday evening and Friday morning. Be alert to quickly changing conditions throughout.

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