Friday, April 24, 2015

Dangerous Saturday Storms

SATURDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY!

Friday PM Update:
Looks like another stormy start to the weekend with a heightened risk for severe weather as well for Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has included the entire Local 6 area in the SLIGHT RISK and even put most of Kentucky in the elevated ENHANCED RISK for Saturday, mainly for the afternoon and evening hours. Continue to monitor the outlook updates starting Saturday morning. The National Weather Service in Paducah has confirmed that the Storm Prediction Center may upgrade part of the area to a MODERATE RISK. 
Here is the Friday forecast timeline from the Paducah Bational Weather Service:
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

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