Tuesday Thunderstorms - Severe Potential

Monday AM Update:
This morning's look at the risk area from the Storm Pediction Center is still pretty close to what we've been seeing the past couple of days. Kentucky and Tennessee are included in the ENHANCED risk and everyone in the Local 6 area is covered under the SLIGHT risk area. To see how each risk area is defined, see the Sunday PM Update below. 

Sunday PM Update:
The Storm Prediction Center has updates their outlook and it still places KY/TN in the area for greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday. A few showers and storms will be possible late tonight and early tomorrow as an initial weak front passes through the area. By Monday evening, a warm front will lift back north across the Local 6 area, bringing back the moisture needed for Tuesday storm development. 

Here is a closer look at timing of the main line of storms expected on Tuesday:

Friday PM Update: 
All signs have pointed to a major storm system developing in the heart of the central plains on Monday, moving east on Tuesday to bring the threat of strong/severe storms to the Local 6.
Since early this week, computer models have indicated the development of this storm system and the threat of severe weather associated with it. Over time the risk area has been more defined to include the Mid-Mississippi  and Tennessee Valleys. 
An initial chance of rain will arrive Sunday into Sunday night as a warm front lifts north across the Local 6 area. A weak front will pass through early Monday bringing a brief period of cooler, drier air. Another warm front will lift back north across the region late Monday night and early Tuesday allowing warmth and moisture to return to set the stage for the larger storm system. The timing of storm development will coincide with the heating of the day and any sunshine that might break through will further destabilize the atmosphere in Kentucky and Tennessee leading to the highlighted risk area above. 
Damaging winds will be the greatest concern with storms that move across the area. There will also be a threat of isolated tornadoes, particularly as storms begin to develop Tuesday afternoon. 
Of course this storm system is still several days away so timing may change a little but I wanted to give you a heads up going into the weekend. Updates will be forthcoming over the weekend and we'll see if a Weather Authority Alert Day will be necessary.
Our area is typically a target for organized lines of storms that bring embedded weak tornadoes and damaging winds. Here is a look at the average number of times we see these types of events during the cold season, each decade:

Courtesy: Storm Prediction Center

Here is a link to severe weather preparedness from The Weather Authority, WPSD Local 6.