Monday, February 22, 2016

Strong Winds, Heavy Rain, Snow Tue PM - Wed PM

Tuesday Evening Update:
Rain is arriving pretty close to model projections, maybe early by 30-60 minutes. Radar shows a large span of rain moving in from the south across TN and AR this afternoon and will overspread the area through 6-7PM. Along with increased rain chances will come an increase in winds, especially during the overnight hours. Winds will become sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph.
A Wind ADVISORY is now in effect for most of the Local 6 area until 6PM Wednesday evening. A Winter Weather ADVISORY goes into effect Wednesday morning at 3AM and continues through 6PM Wednesday evening for Southern Illinois and SE Missouri.
Snow totals are still looking most likely in SEMO/SIL. Below is a breakdown of expected snow totals by state.
Monday PM Update:
A rather strong and multi-faceted storm system will bring a variety of weather elements with it starting Tuesday evening and continue through Wednesday night. Heavy rain at times will begin to spread across the area from the south as an area of low pressure moves up the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few rumbles of thunder may also be heard as the low quickly moves over our region Tuesday night.
This area of low pressure will have a tight pressure gradient associated
with it and that means strong winds will be felt area-wide with sustained measurements from 15-25 mph and gusts from 40-45 mph.A Wind Advisory may be issued for much of the area, especially targeting Tuesday Night and early Wednesday Morning. Soggy ground conditions mean that weak trees or leaning power lines may be susceptible to blowing over in stronger wind gusts. Low-lying areas will likely see flooding and creeks/streams may reach bank-full.
On Wednesday, cold air wrapping around the NW side of the storm system will allow for sleet and snow to mix with rain early Wednesday for portions of Missouri near the Ozarks and higher elevations. This transition will then take place further into IL/KY/TN throughout the day as the center of low pressure moves NE away from our area.

Rain and snowfall totals are shown below and are the latest computer forecast models as of 10PM Monday night. In general, the area stands to receive 1-2 inches of rain with some areas shaded in yellow/orange seeing 2-3 inches of rain. As for snow, higher accumulations from 2-3" can be expected over IL/MO with lighter amounts for KY/TN showing a light coating or nothing at all. We will see how quickly the cold air arrives before the moisture leaves and that will determine how far east accumulating snow will occur. Wednesday night and Thursday morning may see the coldest temperatures out of this system and we could see some slick roadways. Thankfully we have had a few mild days to help warm pavement temperatures leading into this storm's arrival but areas in IL/MO will be at highest risk for hazardous road conditions.

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