Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Rain and Flooding Concerns Continue


Friday Afternoon Update:
A Flash Flood WATCH is still in effect for portions of NW TN until Saturday afternoon. We are likely to see additional counties added to this map as the threat of heavy downpours returns to the area. Another round of rain sets to move in for the weekend adding to the flooding impacting parts of the area this week. Lowland areas as well as those situated along creeks, streams, and rivers are at additional risk for flash flooding. Below is a look at estimated rainfall totals from Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

RPM Model - 18Z Fri Run

Wednesday Afternoon Update:
Additional counties have been added to the Flash Flood WATCH as of this morning and now includes counties across all of Southern Illinois, and the Mississippi River counties in KY/TN and the Paducah Area. You can see the map positioned below. In addition to those changes on the map, the placement of heavy rain has been shifted a little further to the SE, thus prompting the National Weather Service to include more counties in IL/KY/TN. Here is a look at the latest computer forecast models and how much rain is expected by the end of the week.
Click to enlarge - GFS and NAM Model Projections

Tuesday Evening Update:
WPSD - Created by Trent Okerson
The Spring wet season is about to get a kick-start with a heavy precipitation event set to unfold starting as early as tonight for some. Computer models have had the placement of the highest totals back and forth across our area but even on the lower end of rain totals, we are looking at a rather high-impact event, especially along the Mississippi River and Southeast Missouri.
A Flash Flood WATCH has been issued for most of Southeast Missouri and parts of Southern Illinois beginning Wednesday morning and running through Thursday night. We could see a few additional counties added to this as the rain event unfolds. All and all we anticipate a high-impact event for Missouri and counties along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers in KY, IL, and TN. Lesser amounts will be expected east of the Lakes in KY/TN.
Click to enlarge - Courtesy of WxBell
You can see below that the two main weather computer models show a stark contrast from west to east across the Local 6 area. The one thing we have noticed in the past couple runs of both computer models is the edge of heavy rainfall totals shifting a little further to the east. This puts counties along the Ohio River in IL/KY in line for higher totals. Be aware that we will see several rounds of heavy rain starting Tuesday night all the way through Friday....maybe even Saturday morning.

Rainfall totals will amount to 3-5" where the Flash Flood Watch is in effect and shaded in on the map above. Areas further east are more likely to see 1-3". Ponding of water is likely anywhere across the Local 6 area. Water over roadways will be likely as well, especially in usually low-lying areas. Creeks, streams, and some local rivers are already running high or at bankfull. If you live near any of these areas, be sure to review where higher ground is located in the event you need to leave quickly. Remember....NEVER LET CHILDREN PLAY IN OR AROUND FLOOD WATERS and ALWAYS TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!


To read about the "Future of Flash Flooding" in an article I published on wxshift.com, CLICK HERE.


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