Old Man Winter is Knocking & Snow Potential

It was inevitable. I've been basking in the early warmth of Spring just like many of you out there for weeks now. I've also been stressing that until we get entirely through the month of March, snow is NOT out of the question. With that being said it's going to be a wild weather ride for the next 7 days. We're becoming quite confident that snow will impact much of the area Saturday into Sunday. Mixing with rain for the onset, the switch-over to snow will take place by Saturday night. The GFS computer model (pictured below) seems to be the most reasonable guidance as of Wednesday night. It is a nice middle ground projection and other computer models are starting to show guidance closer to it's output. The greatest chance of accumulating snow will reside over the Ozarks of Missouri then we should see a swath of snow into the Purchase Area of Western Kentucky and down across NW Tennessee.

Click to enlarge. Credit: WxBell

Snow is the least of our concerns though as this wintry blast will possibly bring a killing freeze. It's a halt on the early start to the growing season and damage for fruit farmers across the Mid-South .

Also featured below is a look at 3 computer model projections as of Wednesday night. While the numbers may change slightly by the start of the weekend, the 1-3" range is a pretty good bet. Elevated landscape like the Ozarks could see a little more. Some areas may also see initial snowfall melt on contact. Since the ground soil temperature is already fairly mild (in the 50's) then any snow that does accumulate probably won't stick around very long. Because much of the snow will likely fall Saturday night there may be some initial roads with slick spots where untreated on Sunday morning. Additional updates will be posted here as we move closer to the weekend.

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Mid-South Winter Outlook 2023-2024

Getting a general idea of what the upcoming Winter months (December, January and February) will look like for our region can be heavily influenced by El Nino and La Nina episodes. Global and oceanic forecasters have observed El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and an EL NINO ADVISORY has been issued. The episode is expected to continue through Spring (March, April and May) in the Northern Hemisphere. Model projections are pointing to a strong, possibly very strong episode occurrence. (Current Sea Surface Temps warming off S. America) Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological Winter. An average winter in the Local 6 area shows an average temperature of 37 degrees, average precipitation total of 12.18" and average snowfall of 8.4". The National Weather Service in Paducah has historical data that covers 7 of the past strongest El Nino episodes in the past

Planting Zones Heading North

As our global climate changes, so does our planting zones, helping us determine which flowers/shrubs/trees are hardy in specific areas. The Local 6 area has always been split by 2-3 growing zones so placement becomes very important to those in the agricultural community. The image below represents the average over the past 30 years. Climate Central published the following information: "What kinds of flowers, shrubs and trees you’ll find at your local nursery depends on your climate — how warm it tends to get in summer, and how cold in winter. A plant that’s happy in Wisconsin might be miserable in Alabama, and vice versa. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has formalized these differences into " hardiness zones " — strips of similar climate that run more or less east-to-west (except in the high mountains), where particular plants should do especially well. But as the planet warms under its thickening blanket of greenhouse gases, those zones are shifting northward. Th

Update: Impacts From Tropical Depression Bill

Friday AM Update Heavy rain still appears to be our greatest concern as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill pass directly over the Local 6 area throughout the day today. A Flash Flood WATCH continues for Southern Illinois, SE Missouri, and the Ohio River counties in Western Kentucky through Saturday. Here is a look at today's forecast concerning rainfall totals from the Weather/Hydrological Prediction Center. In any given area, 2-4 inches of rain will be possible. Low-lying areas are most prone to flash flooding. Showers and storms will increase in coverage and intensity during the day on Friday. Keep preparedness and awareness in mind as heavy rain moves in. Locate areas of higher ground in the event you need to retreat there. Never drive across flooded roadways. Keep children from playing in flood waters. Water depth and swiftness is difficult to determine. Below is the latest Flash Flooding Potential Briefing from the Paducah National Weather Service.

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