Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Old Man Winter is Knocking & Snow Potential

It was inevitable. I've been basking in the early warmth of Spring just like many of you out there for weeks now. I've also been stressing that until we get entirely through the month of March, snow is NOT out of the question. With that being said it's going to be a wild weather ride for the next 7 days. We're becoming quite confident that snow will impact much of the area Saturday into Sunday. Mixing with rain for the onset, the switch-over to snow will take place by Saturday night. The GFS computer model (pictured below) seems to be the most reasonable guidance as of Wednesday night. It is a nice middle ground projection and other computer models are starting to show guidance closer to it's output. The greatest chance of accumulating snow will reside over the Ozarks of Missouri then we should see a swath of snow into the Purchase Area of Western Kentucky and down across NW Tennessee. 
Click to enlarge. Credit: WxBell
Snow is the least of our concerns though as this wintry blast will possibly bring a killing freeze. It's a halt on the early start to the growing season and damage for fruit farmers across the Mid-South . 
Also featured below is a look at 3 computer model projections as of Wednesday night. While the numbers may change slightly by the start of the weekend, the 1-3" range is a pretty good bet. Elevated landscape like the Ozarks could see a little more. Some areas may also see initial snowfall melt on contact. Since the ground soil temperature is already fairly mild (in the 50's) then any snow that does accumulate probably won't stick around very long. Because much of the snow will likely fall Saturday night there may be some initial roads with slick spots where untreated on Sunday morning. Additional updates will be posted here as we move closer to the weekend. 

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