Using Folklore to Predict Winter 2017-2018

The beauty of fall can also bring indicators of how the surrounding environment is preparing for the winter ahead. There are two popular folklore that people tend to look for this time of the year. The first being the woolly bear (Isabella tiger moth caterpillars). Their striking appearance usually catches your eye by late summer, thus spreading fears of an overly warm or particularly snowy winter. The fascination is fun but usually doesn't prove scientific unless you happen to find "the one" that lines up with the actual outcome of winter. They vary from region to region and are part of the bristled species of caterpillars which can lead to mis-identification. The image above shows how you can be sure you are spotting a true woolly bear and not an impostor.

To have some fun with the folklore of the little guy, here are a few tips:

Woolly bears have 13 segments made of black and orange and are known to represent the 13 weeks of winter.
The front segment represents the start of winter, the middle segments represent the middle weeks of winter, and so forth.
The position and length of the orange bands signify when and how long a warm period (weeks) will occur during the winter.

Another popular folklore that think of when using nature to predict an upcoming winter is the persimmon seed. When a persimmon seed if cut in half, it reveals a kernel in the distinct shape of a spoon, knife, or fork. Each of those shapes are believed to represent a type of average winter condition we can expect ahead. Here is a guide to identifying the shapes and their meanings:

Knife: Very cold and icy. Winds will "cut" right through you.
Fork: Warm and dry. Powdery, light snow is possible.
Spoon: Cold and snowy. Snow to "shovel" can be expected.

Pictured below is a set of persimmon seeds I cut open this fall that I collected from multiple fruits from a tree at Noble Park. Despite the outlook of a slightly milder winter per NOAA, the seeds I dissected gave the "spoon" and "knife" appearance in most cases. One seed produced a fork-like shape.
I'd love to see what you are collecting in your part of the Local 6 area so we can compare notes and see if folklore can verify this upcoming winter!

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Mid-South Winter Outlook 2023-2024

Getting a general idea of what the upcoming Winter months (December, January and February) will look like for our region can be heavily influenced by El Nino and La Nina episodes. Global and oceanic forecasters have observed El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and an EL NINO ADVISORY has been issued. The episode is expected to continue through Spring (March, April and May) in the Northern Hemisphere. Model projections are pointing to a strong, possibly very strong episode occurrence. (Current Sea Surface Temps warming off S. America) Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological Winter. An average winter in the Local 6 area shows an average temperature of 37 degrees, average precipitation total of 12.18" and average snowfall of 8.4". The National Weather Service in Paducah has historical data that covers 7 of the past strongest El Nino episodes in the past

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