Tracking Snow with BIG Weather Changes Ahead

It happens with the flip of a switch every year in the Mid-South. It's not uncommon to go from very warm and stormy to blustery and cold (snowy) all in a matter of a week. That time has arrived for the Local 6 area this week and the big change will happen late Monday Night and Tuesday.

Warm and windy conditions ahead of a BIG cold front will lead to showers and storms tonight and early Tuesday. While wintery precipitation is not widely expected the stark change will come in temperatures behind the front. This shift in weather dynamics will not be short term. The overall weather pattern will favor a trough (dip) in the jetstream to allow cold, Canadian air to spill southward for several days and favor a few small chances for snow in the next seven days. (Snow lovers clap here!)

As we switch to this northwest flow regime, the cold air in place and energy swinging down through gives us our first chance at flurries and light snow Thursday night. A slightly bigger piece of energy swings through Friday night and Saturday morning. This will likely be our first chance of lightly accumulating snow especially over Southern Illinois, the Pennyrile of Western Kentucky and the Lakes area. You can see the projected snow areas below. We are still 5 days out from the forecast so this is likely going to change a bit over the next couple of days and it's why I don't put specific snow totals attached to it. Those will be added Wednesday. It is good practice to only show forecast snow totals for specific cities at 48-60 hours out. You'll see that here all season long and it cuts down on error and confusion.

GFS model output for Saturday morning. Click to enlarge.

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Mid-South Winter Outlook 2023-2024

Getting a general idea of what the upcoming Winter months (December, January and February) will look like for our region can be heavily influenced by El Nino and La Nina episodes. Global and oceanic forecasters have observed El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and an EL NINO ADVISORY has been issued. The episode is expected to continue through Spring (March, April and May) in the Northern Hemisphere. Model projections are pointing to a strong, possibly very strong episode occurrence. (Current Sea Surface Temps warming off S. America) Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological Winter. An average winter in the Local 6 area shows an average temperature of 37 degrees, average precipitation total of 12.18" and average snowfall of 8.4". The National Weather Service in Paducah has historical data that covers 7 of the past strongest El Nino episodes in the past

Planting Zones Heading North

As our global climate changes, so does our planting zones, helping us determine which flowers/shrubs/trees are hardy in specific areas. The Local 6 area has always been split by 2-3 growing zones so placement becomes very important to those in the agricultural community. The image below represents the average over the past 30 years. Climate Central published the following information: "What kinds of flowers, shrubs and trees you’ll find at your local nursery depends on your climate — how warm it tends to get in summer, and how cold in winter. A plant that’s happy in Wisconsin might be miserable in Alabama, and vice versa. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has formalized these differences into " hardiness zones " — strips of similar climate that run more or less east-to-west (except in the high mountains), where particular plants should do especially well. But as the planet warms under its thickening blanket of greenhouse gases, those zones are shifting northward. Th

Update: Impacts From Tropical Depression Bill

Friday AM Update Heavy rain still appears to be our greatest concern as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill pass directly over the Local 6 area throughout the day today. A Flash Flood WATCH continues for Southern Illinois, SE Missouri, and the Ohio River counties in Western Kentucky through Saturday. Here is a look at today's forecast concerning rainfall totals from the Weather/Hydrological Prediction Center. In any given area, 2-4 inches of rain will be possible. Low-lying areas are most prone to flash flooding. Showers and storms will increase in coverage and intensity during the day on Friday. Keep preparedness and awareness in mind as heavy rain moves in. Locate areas of higher ground in the event you need to retreat there. Never drive across flooded roadways. Keep children from playing in flood waters. Water depth and swiftness is difficult to determine. Below is the latest Flash Flooding Potential Briefing from the Paducah National Weather Service.

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