The Spring Thaw and Flooding Threat

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE:

A Flood WATCH is now in effect for the entire Local 6 area and will run until Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening over Missouri and Illinois then move eastward overnight. A cold front will then sit stationary allowing a prolonged period of rain across the entire area.

Be sure to check the river forecast summaries and forecast map links a the bottom of this blog for the latest waterway outlook.
MONDAY EVENING UPDATE:

Periods of recurring heavy rains will become a pattern over the next couple of weeks in the Local 6 area. When this type of activity and weather pattern sets up this time of year along with warmer temperatures allowing the ground to thaw, we start to see an increased risk for flooding and rising river levels.

Excessive rainfall about two weeks ago in the TN Valley forced Barkley and Kentucky Dams to activate all gates to alleviate rising lake levels and send water down to the Ohio River. The Ohio River is now projected to rise to moderate flood stage by the first week in March with several more rounds of rain headed for the region.

Most of the areas impacted by this will be communities that sit low next to rivers and agricultural/recreational land that is usually vulnerable to river flooding in the Spring. These higher water levels will continue for several weeks, at the very least through the middle of March is the bigger weather pattern weakens. The first round of prolonged rain will begin Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night. The Weather Prediction Center has our region included in the slight and moderate risk for excessive rainfall for that entire period and is featured in the maps below.

The Paducah National Weather Service and the River Forecast Centers are responsible for issuing products concerning area lakes and rivers. To see the very latest, here are links you can view:

River Summaries (Including Clarks, Big Muddy, Cache, Current, and many more from the Paducah NWS): Click here

TN River Summaries (including Obion, Forked Deer, and many more from the Memphis NWS): Click here

River Forecast Map: Click here

Comments

Planting Zones Heading North

As our global climate changes, so does our planting zones, helping us determine which flowers/shrubs/trees are hardy in specific areas. The Local 6 area has always been split by 2-3 growing zones so placement becomes very important to those in the agricultural community. The image below represents the average over the past 30 years. Climate Central published the following information: "What kinds of flowers, shrubs and trees you’ll find at your local nursery depends on your climate — how warm it tends to get in summer, and how cold in winter. A plant that’s happy in Wisconsin might be miserable in Alabama, and vice versa. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has formalized these differences into " hardiness zones " — strips of similar climate that run more or less east-to-west (except in the high mountains), where particular plants should do especially well. But as the planet warms under its thickening blanket of greenhouse gases, those zones are shifting northward. Th...

Updates on Upcoming Winter Weather Events

Sunday Morning Update: A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for much of the WPSD Local 6 area with a handful of counties just reaching Winter Storm criteria. Here is the latest map. They are in effect until early Monday. Snowfall totals have not changed much from last nights posting and I really feel this will still just be a road impact for Monday morning. Here is the projected snowfall total map: Sorry, TN. Looks like another near miss on the snow for you. :( Saturday Night Update: A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the Paducah National Weather Service for most of the WPSD Local 6 area. Portions of NW TN and MO Bootheel have been placed under a Winter Weather Advisory all for winters weather on Sunday as colder air begins to arrive. Rain will switch over to freezing rain, sleet, and snow during the day on Sunday eventually leading to accumulations in the watch/advisory areas. Initially any frozen precip will melt thanks to Saturday's mild temps and warmer pavement surfac...

Longer Allergy Seasons

The National Phenology Network is showing the early arrival of leaves on trees in the Ohio Valley, the Midwest, and Western United States this year. This trend has become more of a norm over the past past 50 years. Climate Central published data this week showing the same trend since 1970 with notable attention to the West where states are seeing as many as 17 more frost-free days, extending the growing season. Here in the Local 6 area, the growth is not as notable but still averaging between 4-9 days additional to the growing season. Why does this matter? Aside from having an influence on which plants are suitable for planting zones, it has a much higher societal impact by extending the allergy season. "As the climate warms from the increase of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the last spring freeze is trending earlier and the first fall freeze is coming later. This means the growing season is getting longer, and so is the pollen season— whether it i...

Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Search This Blog