Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Tuesday Evening Update: A few showers may make their way into our region early on Wednesday as the leading edge of moisture arrives from the west but the bulk of higher storm chances will enter our area by late afternoon and evening as a cold front draws closer. The areas drawn below also still look reasonable for storm chances this upcoming weekend with a heavy focus on a flooding threat Fri-Sun with repeated rounds of heavy rain expected. Monday Evening Update: A period of stormy weather is set to unfold for the second half of this week beginning late Wednesday night. Additional storms are then expected over the weekend. Here is a preliminary look at the timing and areas impacted. While the Spring severe weather season started early with the return of warmer weather in February, we've historically seen the most severe weather and tornadoes during the months of April and May. Along with the timeline you can find ways to keep your family prepared with a checklist at the botto...

Several rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to create very soggy conditions starting Thursday night and continue through Saturday afternoon. While it won't be possible to predict exactly which communities will see the highest rainfall totals by Saturday, the graphic below gives you a good idea of where most of the heaviest rain will set up. Lowland flooding will be likely and occasional flash flooding with be possible especially in Illinois and Missouri. Once rain reports start coming in, I'll compile a list to post here in this story. To submit a rainfall total to us, use the link on the right side of this page that says" Link to Submit". A Flood Watch has been issued for most of Southern Illinois and SE Missouri through Saturday afternoon.

THURSDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY Two rounds of strong, potentially severe storms will be possible Thursday as a particularly vigorous low pressure system heads from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Storms traveling across Missouri and Arkansas late Wednesday night will enter the Local 6 area before sunrise. Most of these storms will remain below severe limits but could prompt a few warnings before exiting the area by 9 AM. The most concerning time period for severe storms with a tornado risk arrives after noon and we expect a line of storms to develop over Southern Illinois extending south into Kentucky and Tennessee. They will move east by 6-7 PM. Given the expected nature of this bigger storm system, widespread severe storms will be likely if we get any sunshine after the morning round of storms passes. Here are a few graphics detailing the risks and Storm Prediction Center outlooks for severe storms...

It was inevitable. I've been basking in the early warmth of Spring just like many of you out there for weeks now. I've also been stressing that until we get entirely through the month of March, snow is NOT out of the question. With that being said it's going to be a wild weather ride for the next 7 days. We're becoming quite confident that snow will impact much of the area Saturday into Sunday. Mixing with rain for the onset, the switch-over to snow will take place by Saturday night. The GFS computer model (pictured below) seems to be the most reasonable guidance as of Wednesday night. It is a nice middle ground projection and other computer models are starting to show guidance closer to it's output. The greatest chance of accumulating snow will reside over the Ozarks of Missouri then we should see a swath of snow into the Purchase Area of Western Kentucky and down across NW Tennessee.  Click to enlarge. Credit: WxBell Snow is the least of our concerns thou...

Credit: Chris Conley, Spotter  A well-forecast severe weather event unfolded Tuesday night starting in Southeast Missouri then blowing east into Southern Illinois, The Paducah National Weather Service along with local media gave people in Perryville, MO the early alarm that a large tornado was barreling their way. Storm spotter Chris Conley captured power flashes (right) from the violent tornado hitting power lines as the storm traveled from Perryville across the Mississippi River into Rockwood, IL after claiming one man's life on Interstate 55 and injuring 12 in Perryville. Credit: John Humphress, Spotter The supercell thunderstorm parent to this tornado was only getting started. Confirmation of a tornado and a trail of damage was reported in Rockwood, Ava, Elkville, Christopher, Buckner, Enfield and Crossfield, IL. Storm spotter John Humphress captured the wedge tornado (left) that struck Crossville where a man was killed trying to take shelter. Humphress recal...

March Update: Winter 2016-2017 has officially gone down in the record books as warmest on record (along with the month of February) and the Spring severe weather season is now underway as March roared in loudly. A tornado/severe weather outbreak unfolded from February 28 - March 1st leaving a trail of damage across every state in the Local 6 area (KY, IL, TN, MO). It was exactly 5 years to the date and hour that we were covering a tornado ravaging Harrisburg, IL and  would later hear of its EF4 rating. The same night 5 years later another violent EF4 tornado in Perryville, MO and an EF3 in Crossville, IL from the same parent storm. One of the main reasons I wrote this particular post is to give us an idea of what we can expect for Spring/Summer 2017. Looking back through historical data it was pretty clear that 2012 was a correlation too close to ignore and might give us the best insight to what may come this season. A weak La Nina episode continues dissolve and a trend towar...

Wednesday PM Update:   The moisture train is full steam ahead into the Local 6 area setting us up for several more rounds of rain and the potential for lowland flooding. Showers and a few thunderstorms will overspread the region starting tonight and becoming more numerous by sunrise.  The greatest concern with rain moving in is the already-saturated ground that is in place.  Water will collect quickly in low lying areas and may also cover roads exposed in those same areas. The highest rainfall totals from Wednesday night through Friday morning are centered over Western Kentucky and NW Tennessee where 1-2" is possible. Flood prone areas should be alert to rising water Thursday. The graphic above is a look at rainfall projections through Friday morning. Additional rain is expected in smaller amounts on Friday and Saturday as a warm front lifts north of the Local 6 area. A cold front will slowly push our way this weekend bringing another round of heavy rain and thunder...