Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

BITTERLY COLD WINTER NOT LIKELY; HOPE FOR SNOW LOVERS. Cooler temperatures have finally started to bring a whirl of fall feeling to the air and reminds us that the cold season is just around the corner. Like winters past, there can be a wide range of weather conditions that can either make snow lovers rejoice or send people running for the Florida sunshine. Each winter is completely different and subtle changes in the global weather pattern can have varying impacts on our region. To gain better insight forecasting into the season ahead, looking to similar weather patterns of the past can suggest likelihoods of temperature and precipitation trends. Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average and define that period of time as Meteorological Winter. An average winter in the Paducah and surrounding area shows an average temperature of 37 degrees (January being the coldest), average precipitation total of 12.18" and average snowfa...

The National Phenology Network is showing the early arrival of leaves on trees in the Ohio Valley, the Midwest, and Western United States this year. This trend has become more of a norm over the past past 50 years. Climate Central published data this week showing the same trend since 1970 with notable attention to the West where states are seeing as many as 17 more frost-free days, extending the growing season. Here in the Local 6 area, the growth is not as notable but still averaging between 4-9 days additional to the growing season. Why does this matter? Aside from having an influence on which plants are suitable for planting zones, it has a much higher societal impact by extending the allergy season.  "As the climate warms from the increase of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the last spring freeze is trending earlier and the first fall freeze is coming later. This means the growing season is getting longer, and so is the pollen season— whether it is from tree poll...

Saturday is a WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY Friday Morning Update: The Storm Prediction Center has (for now) shifted the higher risk for severe storms slightly to our south. This may change back northward with updates out of their office forthcoming. Either way, strong damaging winds and a high risk for flooding still exists for the region on Saturday. Here’s the latest outlook: Thursday Night Update: For several days, there has been supportive weather data showing a favorable set-up for a severe weather outbreak on Saturday. Many ingredients are favorable for widespread wind damage, tornadoes and flooding starting during the early afternoon hours and progressing eastward through early evening. There may be clusters of storms followed by a final squall line before the system moves east out of our area Saturday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting the Local 6 area for several days now as an area of risk. Today, they outlined our area in an ENHANCED RISK (3 of...

MONDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY Nocturnal severe storms and tornadoes have always been part of our weather history during the Fall season and is why we stress the importance of prepared during our second severe weather season. Monday evening and night will bring our next chance for severe storms to the Local 6 area. The Storm Prediction Center has included the Local 6 area in the SLIGHT RISK category for Monday evening/night. Will update if that information changes. Kentucky and Tennessee will see the greatest chance of storms turning severe. As for timing, the threat for severe storms increases as the sun goes down Monday evening. The dynamics for severe storms peak around 5pm to 10pm across the Local 6 area. We may have a few severe storms outside of that time period but the greatest risk for widespread coverage will be during that window. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with the forecast wind shear that will be present in our region. Be su...

The beauty of fall can also bring indicators of how the surrounding environment is preparing  for the winter ahead. There are two popular folklore that people tend to look for this time of the year. The first being the woolly bear (Isabella tiger moth caterpillars). Their striking appearance usually catches your eye by late summer, thus spreading fears of an overly warm or particularly snowy winter. The fascination is fun but usually doesn't prove scientific unless you happen to find "the one" that lines up with the actual outcome of winter. They vary from region to region and are part of the bristled species of caterpillars which can lead to mis-identification. The image above shows how you can be sure you are spotting a true woolly bear and not an impostor.  To have some fun with the folklore of the little guy, here are a few tips:  Woolly bears have 13 segments made of black and orange and are known to represent the 13 weeks of winter. The front segment represe...

The Climate Prediction Center has entered into El Nino Watch with a 60% chance of episode development during the Fall (Sep-Nov) and a 70% chance of episode development by Winter (Dec-Feb). Meteorologists monitor the status of El Nino and La Nina because it can have a direct impact on the large-scale weather pattern over the United States, especially during the Summer and Winter months. The following two graphics show how temperatures and precipitation are typically impacted by an El Nino episode during the winter months.  Winters tend to be warmer than normal and precipitation stays fairly average. The two maps compare previous winter El Nino episodes to the long-term average from 1950-2007. NOAA/NCDC - Click to enlarge Forecasting into the season ahead can be more accurate when looking to similar weather patterns of the past. Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological...