Thursday, February 12, 2015

President's Day Winter Storm Updates


Sunday PM Update: 
The Weather Authority will be streaming live weather updates at 6/7/8/9/10pm Sunday evening as the storm approaches on our web channel and on Digital 6.2/6.3.

Hopefully your preps are coming to completion as snow begins to move in tonight. Snow totals continue to look very heavy for most of the area with sleet accumulation also possible over NW Tennessee. Light snow will be possible this evening but the heavier snow will likely begin overnight for most of the area. Snow accumulation still matched the forecast graphic just below.
Once the heavier snow begins, road conditions will deteriorate quickly, even on treated roadways, due to cold temperatures. 

Preparations should be complete today before snow moves in late this afternoon and evening. Once the snow begins, road conditions will deteriorate quickly. Computer models have adjusted the path of this storm to heavily impact Western Kentucky, the northern counties in Tennessee, and most of SE Missouri and Southern Illinois. Highest snowfall combined with sleet will hit the core of our area beginning this evening. 

Travel will have the biggest impact from this storm. The combination of snow and sleet will make for dangerous road conditions tonight and possibly for a couple of days, or at least until temperatures warm a little in the coming days. Here is a look at snow totals as of 9AM Sunday morning:
Snow and sleet accumulation from Sunday night into Monday

Here are the latest warning from the National Weather Service:
Be sure to watch for escalated team coverage starting at 5pm tonight on WPSD Local 6!

Saturday Afternoon Update:
Computer models have significantly upped our snowfall totals as of this afternoon prompting WPSD Local 6 to activate a Weather Authority Alert Day for Sunday and Monday for the potential for heavy snow. If the current trend holds, many areas will pick up 4-6 inches of snow, possibly much more where snow banding sets up. Here is the Winter Storm Watch issued by the Paducah/Memphis National Weather Service offices:
Saturday Evening RPM Model Run for Accumulated Snow

Snow totals at this time are still going to change some in the next 24 hours but are coming in line with the graphic shown here. Major road impacts will be possible if this materializes Sunday night. Brine and salt become much less effective when temperatures drop below 18 degrees which is where we will be Sunday night for low temperatures. 
There is ample time to prepared tonight and tomorrow morning before snow starts to move into the area. Because temps will be so cold, snow will accumulate quickly even on area roads. Once the snow begins to accumulate, please limit travel and prepare for Monday morning travel impacts.

Friday PM Update:
Timing seems to bring the wintry weather into the Local 6 a bit earlier on Sunday afternoon rather than after dark. Snow will start to overspread MO by mid Sunday afternoon and quickly dive SE into KY, IL, TN by late afternoon and early evening. Highest snowfall totals still appear to be in MO, the far SW corner of KY, and NW Tennessee ending Monday morning. These areas are most likely to see 2+ inches of snow. Here is a look at the Friday evening snow projections from the computer models:

I honestly think these totals and the placement of the snow may still change a little before Sunday but this seems to be the most consistent outcome we have seen the past couple of days. 
Another aspect of this storm is watching where snow "banding" could potentially set up, making for locally higher snow amounts. The short range computer models will probably have a better outlook on this scenario on Saturday and I will post updates when they do.
The computer models have been all over the place with this particular storm so be sure to check back over the weekend to see if the path of the storm changes or the totals go up or down.

Thursday PM Update:
Cold air has invaded the Mid-South and wont be retreating anytime soon. In addition to the arctic cold, a winter storm is set to target parts of the Southeast at the start of next week (Sunday Night - Tuesday). Exact impact area is still going to be subject to change and snowfall totals are wide-ranging within the models right now but timing seems to be pretty consistent and the storm looks to impact part of or all the Local 6 area.
In the early hintings of this storm, accumulating snow is becoming a little more likely for our region and especially for Northwest Tennessee. Here is a look at the onset of the first round of possible snow starting Sunday night:

After the first possible round, we may also see additional light accumulations across the south half of the Local 6 area on Tuesday morning. Here is the precipitation location for Tuesday morning:

With all of this being said, we will likely be on the edge of this storm system. Places just to our Southeast are set to see higher accumulations. (Nashville, Knoxville, Hazard)

The weekend would be a good time to prep for winter conditions both at home and if you will be traveling during this time period. Road crews are out early pre-treating area roads in advance of the possible snow. Whether we get much snow or not, its always worth a few minutes of your time to be prepared. Here is a quick graphic from for winter weather preparedness:

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