Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Signs might be pointing to El Nino moving past it's peak intensity for this particular episode while moving toward a neutral phase by Spring. Below is an animation that showed the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino episode then toward the very end starts to show a drop in Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. This may very well be a signal of El Nino weakening. This same trend has also been picked up in forecast computer models projecting a neutral phase by late Spring and even suggesting a weak La Nina phase by late Summer. Below is a look at the latest computer model projections all the way through the start of Fall 2016. Each line color represents a different model forecast. The closer the line is to "zero" the more neutral the phase is expected. The solid yellow line is the average of all the model forecasts. Most of the models agree on an El Nino phase (positive 0.5+) until the AMJ (April-May-June) time frame. This would suggest a slowly weakening El Nino through...

THURSDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY! Wednesday Afternoon Update: The entire Local 6 area is now included in the outlook for an ENHANCED RISK for severe weather for Thursday - Thursday night. This is an upgrade from what the Storm Prediction Center had earlier today. You can also see just below the map what the different risk categories mean to you. See below for timing and additional details. Wednesday Update: An active weather pattern continues to bring strong storms to the region this week with a greater risk arriving on Thursday and Thursday night. A strong cold front will move in from the Central Plains and Upper Midwest during the day on Thursday. Ahead of the front, very warm, moist and unstable air will lead to thunderstorm development rapidly Thursday evening.  The images to the left show the forecast radar imagery for different time periods starting at 6PM on Thursday evening. The cold front should clear the Local 6 area around Midnight and take...

Send us your "Spring in Bloom" photos! My absolute favorite time during the year is the season of life, SPRING! I enjoy the warm air, chirping baby birds, emerging buds, and vibrant blooms. I love capturing it all on film just as much as the next person so we'd love to share your view of Spring with other viewers too. Here's how! BE CREATIVE! HAVE FUN! EXPLORE SOMETHING NEW! ...then download this new app we are launching that will send The Weather Authority an instant message alerting us to your viewer photo. It will also place your photo on a map with other viewers so that you can see what others are discovering and capturing in our area. It will also make it super easy for us to share more photos during our weather shows! Here is the link to download from iTunes but it's also available in Google Play.  StormPins by Prospect Hill Advisors LLC: https://appsto.re/us/4AwsJ.i ***You can also instantly share your videos, storm photos and news photos with...

MONDAY PM UPDATE As we hit the start of Meteorological Spring (March 1st) we began filling the rain gauge quickly with the help of record breaking snowfall then heavy periods of rain to follow. The National Weather Service in Paducah has recorded 7.95 inches so far for the month making it the 8th wettest on record so far. Thanks to another record snowfall back in February, the Paducah National Weather Service has recorded the 6th wettest start to a calendar year with 15.24" since January 1st. This makes it the wettest start since 1989 when 21.82" was measured through March 14 of that year. Rivers in the WPSD Local 6 area are expected to continue rising through next week. Here is a look at expected river crest heights and times: (River forecasts are updated once a day. Latest information is provided below.) The Ohio River  at CAIRO: At 11:00 AM Monday the stage was 47.5 feet.  Flood Stage is 40.0 feet.  Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is ...

Did you know that the Floods are the #1 natural disaster in the Unites States and nearly 20% of all insurance claims due to flooding come from moderate to low risk areas? We've seen this happen in our own communities as recently as 2011 when collectively the Ohio, Mississippi, Cumberland, Tennessee, and Clarks Rivers experienced "100 yr" floods. Even areas that had never seen major flooding were inundated by an overly active winter rainy season that did not relent while transitioning into Spring. We are entering a delicate time of the year where Winter transitions to spring and several factors can play a part in our flooding risk. Snow melt, spring thaw, heavy rains, and even ice jams (rarely) can contribute to the cause. To evaluate exactly what your risks are where you live (here in the Local 6 area or elsewhere) check out this interactive panel below. In general the Local 6 area is prone to flooding from the Spring thaw and heavy thunderstorms. Snowfall becom...

The chill in the air is rather brisk and a light dusting of snow covered the ground this morning....Winter's grip is still holding tight despite being the end of March.....but isn't this what March used to be like? We've gotten so used to an early Spring that now when an "average" Winter/Spring comes along, it stings a little. :) Last March we were basking in record warmth with multiple 80+ degree days and farmers were planting earlier than ever hoping for a bumper crop. This March, a weak La Nina weather pattern along with a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation signal has kept up much colder than the average. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) means this: The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern United States The positive phase brings the opposite conditions, steering ocean storms farther north and bringing wetter weather to Alaska Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center - March 26, 2013 The climate models project the above forecast and...