Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

It happens with the flip of a switch every year in the Mid-South. It's not uncommon to go from very warm and stormy to blustery and cold (snowy) all in a matter of a week. That time has arrived for the Local 6 area this week and the big change will happen late Monday Night and Tuesday.  Warm and windy conditions ahead of a BIG cold front will lead to showers and storms tonight and early Tuesday. While wintery precipitation is not widely expected the stark change will come in temperatures behind the front. This shift in weather dynamics will not be short term. The overall weather pattern will favor a trough (dip) in the jetstream to allow cold, Canadian air to spill southward for several days and favor a few small chances for snow in the next seven days. (Snow lovers clap here!)  As we switch to this northwest flow regime, the cold air in place and energy swinging down through gives us our first chance at flurries and light snow Thursday night. A slightly bigger piece ...

Tuesday Evening Update: Rain is arriving pretty close to model projections, maybe early by 30-60 minutes. Radar shows a large span of rain moving in from the south across TN and AR this afternoon and will overspread the area through 6-7PM. Along with increased rain chances will come an increase in winds, especially during the overnight hours. Winds will become sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph. A Wind ADVISORY is now in effect for most of the Local 6 area until 6PM Wednesday evening. A Winter Weather ADVISORY goes into effect Wednesday morning at 3AM and continues through 6PM Wednesday evening for Southern Illinois and SE Missouri. Snow totals are still looking most likely in SEMO/SIL. Below is a breakdown of expected snow totals by state. Monday PM Update: A rather strong and multi-faceted storm system will bring a variety of weather elements with it starting Tuesday evening and continue through Wednesday night. Heavy rain at times will begin to spread acro...

A look at snow totals as of 2:30PM for the Local 6 area. Storm reports and map provided by the National Weather Service SUNDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY will go into effect starting at 3AM Sunday morning running until 3AM Monday morning for accumulating snow and hazardous driving conditions. Expected snow totals have been raised just a bit since last night.  To the right is a look at what each computer model is projecting for snow totals in the Paducah area, ranging from 1-4" by Sunday evening. I detailed each state further down the page so you can see what to expect where you live compared to everyone else in the Local 6 area.  Also, below is the latest map of the Local 6 area and snowfall forecast. Some of the snowfall forecast totals below may also include sleet accumulation, especially across KY/MO. Freezing rain may also cause some slick conditions on roads left untreat...

Wednesday September 9, 2015 Update: Created by Jennifer Rukavina via NOAA/ESRL Data The current trend will continue as NOAA continues to forecast a strong El Nino episode through late Winter and possibly Spring 2016. The following two graphics show on a map what I have detailed below about "Notable El Nino Episodes for Winter". Winters tend to be warmer than normal and precipitation stays fairly average. The two maps compare the previously mentioned winter El Nino episodes to the long-term average from 1950-2007. Created by Jennifer Rukavina via NOAA/ESRL Data August 21, 2015 Original Post Forecasting into the season ahead is most accurate when looking to similar weather patterns of the past. As you have probably seen in the news El Nino is expected to strengthen into the upcoming fall and winter. I've done a little digging into the historical record to find out how we have fared during similar El Nino episodes. Here is what I was able to fin...

The National Weather Service in Paducah has recorded these record snowfalls in the past. I also found a possible snow event back in March of 1960 that measured 9" but will have to verify with the NWS after this event wraps up.  Top 5 Paducah Snowstorms 1.  14.2"  on December 22-23, 2004 2.  12.2"  on January 16-17, 1978 3.  10.8"  on February 16, 2015 4.  8.2"  on February 27-28, 1984 5.  8.0"  on March 6, 1967 (Unofficial total from March 4-5, 2015: 12.1") Noon Thursday Highest Snow Totals  (NWS Paducah/Memphis) 11:00 PM Highest Snow Totals  (NWS Paducah/Memphis) 9:30 Highest Snow Totals  (NWS Paducah/Memphis) 7:30 Highest Snow Totals 6:30 Highest Snow Totals   From the Paducah and Memphis National Weather Service Offices

WEDNESDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY! TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE: A Winter Storm WARNING will go into effect starting 6AM for the entire WPSD Local 6 area for accumulating snow and sleet making for area-wide travel impacts. Freezing line position during the day on Wednesday Initially we will see the onset of rain and sleet during the day on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, the switch over will bring sleet and snow south across the area. Accumulating snow and sleet are becoming more and more likely with each model run. Steady rain, heavy at times will continue Tuesday night before the transition begins across Southern Illinois and Missouri pressing southward during the course of the morning and afternoon. Everyone should switch over to snow by later Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The heaviest snow should be wrapping up by midnight area-wide. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulations will be heaviest across KY and TN back into the Bootheel of MO just like we recor...

As we wrap up the month of February and the end of Meteorological Winter, we won't soon forget the Siberian Express that brought record cold temperatures and a double shot of snow during President's Day week. Here is how we stand if the month ended today....likely going to hold. Compared to February 1978, it will be fairly difficult to break into the #1 spot. Just for number's sake, February of 1978 averaged 24.4 degrees compared February of 2015 at 28.6 (as of the 24th). Do you remember 1978 and the extended period of cold temperatures and a lot of snow? I'd love to hear your story by posting in the comment section below! Top 5 Paducah Snowstorms 1. 14.2" on December 22-23, 2004 2. 12.2" on January 16-17, 1978 3. 10.8" on February 16, 2015 4. 8.2" on February 27-28, 1984 5. 8.0" on March 6, 1967

SATURDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY! Friday PM Update: Sleet and freezing rain continues to fall across much of the area and will switch between freezing rain and rain throughout the day on Saturday. A FLOOD WATCH is now in effect through Saturday evening. Ice covered snow will make it difficult for rain to soak into the soil below leaving us vulnerable to flash flooding and flooding of low lying areas. Here are the latest projected rainfall and ice accumulation totals: Post by Jennifer Rukavina - WPSD Local 6 . Thursday PM Update: With the potential for ice accumulation, we may also want to be prepared for some sporadic power outages across our area. Here is an exclusive look at the Power Outage Risk Map for our area: The time period for this map is Friday 11 PM to Saturday 10 PM Thursday Afternoon Update: New winter weather advisories will be going into effect tonight. Here is the latest advisory map: In addition to wintry weather w...