Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Tuesday Evening Update: Rain is arriving pretty close to model projections, maybe early by 30-60 minutes. Radar shows a large span of rain moving in from the south across TN and AR this afternoon and will overspread the area through 6-7PM. Along with increased rain chances will come an increase in winds, especially during the overnight hours. Winds will become sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph. A Wind ADVISORY is now in effect for most of the Local 6 area until 6PM Wednesday evening. A Winter Weather ADVISORY goes into effect Wednesday morning at 3AM and continues through 6PM Wednesday evening for Southern Illinois and SE Missouri. Snow totals are still looking most likely in SEMO/SIL. Below is a breakdown of expected snow totals by state. Monday PM Update: A rather strong and multi-faceted storm system will bring a variety of weather elements with it starting Tuesday evening and continue through Wednesday night. Heavy rain at times will begin to spread acro...

A look at snow totals as of 2:30PM for the Local 6 area. Storm reports and map provided by the National Weather Service SUNDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY will go into effect starting at 3AM Sunday morning running until 3AM Monday morning for accumulating snow and hazardous driving conditions. Expected snow totals have been raised just a bit since last night.  To the right is a look at what each computer model is projecting for snow totals in the Paducah area, ranging from 1-4" by Sunday evening. I detailed each state further down the page so you can see what to expect where you live compared to everyone else in the Local 6 area.  Also, below is the latest map of the Local 6 area and snowfall forecast. Some of the snowfall forecast totals below may also include sleet accumulation, especially across KY/MO. Freezing rain may also cause some slick conditions on roads left untreat...

Monday AM Update: This morning's look at the risk area from the Storm Pediction Center is still pretty close to what we've been seeing the past couple of days. Kentucky and Tennessee are included in the ENHANCED risk and everyone in the Local 6 area is covered under the SLIGHT risk area. To see how each risk area is defined, see the Sunday PM Update below.  Sunday PM Update: The Storm Prediction Center has updates their outlook and it still places KY/TN in the area for greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday. A few showers and storms will be possible late tonight and early tomorrow as an initial weak front passes through the area. By Monday evening, a warm front will lift back north across the Local 6 area, bringing back the moisture needed for Tuesday storm development.  Here is a closer look at timing of the main line of storms expected on Tuesday: Friday PM Update:   All signs have pointed to a major storm system developing in the heart ...

SNOW TOTALS AS OF 11AM These are official from the National Weather Service in Paducah and Memphis. Some impressive areas of deep snow. Did you see my projected sweet spots I posted yesterday? Scroll down to yesterday's post to see the highlighted cities I picked for "sweet spots" and how it compares to the following list. Click to enlarge. A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A mix of wintry precipitation will move in from southwest to northeast this afternoon and evening, light to begin. Later tonight and early Friday morning the mixed precipitation will switch over to snow, heavy at times, making for hazardous road conditions. A Winter Storm WARNING is already in place from Thursday 6PM until Friday Midday.  An area of low pressure will develop in the deep south by this evening and move northeast through the Tennessee Valley. We always look to the heavy snow band to set up around 150 miles to the northwest ...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAYS FOR WINTER WEATHER  LIVE STREAM LINK Sunday PM Update:   WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY 6PM FOR LOCAL 6 AREA. The Weather Authority will be streaming live weather updates at 6/7/8/9/10pm Sunday evening as the storm approaches on our web channel and on Digital 6.2/6.3. Hopefully your preps are coming to completion as snow begins to move in tonight. Snow totals continue to look very heavy for most of the area with sleet accumulation also possible over NW Tennessee. Light snow will be possible this evening but the heavier snow will likely begin overnight for most of the area. Snow accumulation still matched the forecast graphic just below. Once the heavier snow begins, road conditions will deteriorate quickly, even on treated roadways, due to cold temperatures.  Sunday Update:  WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LOCAL 6 AREA. Preparations should be complete today before ...

Global Temperature Anomaly 2014 (Map 1) Weatherbell Frigid air is about to infiltrate the eastern US again bringing the feel of Winter back to the Local 6 area starting this week.  Since the end of 2013, a La Nina-Neutral influenced weather pattern has left the eastern Lower 48 under a trof of colder than normal temperatures. (See Map 1) Only recently (past few months) the La Nina-Neutral pattern has transitioned to El Nino-Neutral allowing for a loosening of that grip on some of the central states. (See Map 2) Global Temperature Anomaly January 1 - February 9, 2015 (Map 2) Weatherbell With warm, dry weather continuing to supply the positive feedback mechanism in the West, slight changes in the overall weather pattern are not likely to break that cycle, especially headed into the warm seasons.....and this is just one way to look at it. We may consider that the seasonal transitions may help "wobble" the dividing line and break the consistent nature of this...

As a cold front drops south across the area on Wednesday, moisture in the form of snow will follow behind the leading edge of colder air. This will result in a light snow event but also the possibility of that snow freezing on roadways that are not pre-treated Wednesday night. While impacts and accumulations appear to be minor at this point, preparing by allowing yourself some extra commute time Thursday morning is likely to be necessary. Here are the latest forecast graphics below:  Temperatures will drop quickly as the snow arrives north to south and expected overnight lows will reach into the teens for most. Be sure to carry with you a winter weather kit for your car/truck and keep the kiddos bundled up. Keep in mind that even a light snowfall amount can cause area road problems, much like we experienced in mid-January. Even quick preps can ensure a safe Thursday morning commute!