Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Click to enlarge We've finally emerged from the coldest air we've see this season as temperatures warm closer to and just above freezing on Wednesday but it's only a lull. An area of high pressure over Eastern Canada will allow cold air to spill back down in to the Midsouth and Upper Midwest but for a shorter period of time than the last round. This blast of arctic air is headed our way Wednesday night only to be followed by a possible light wintry mix by the weekend.  Click to enlarge Computer models are not in good agreement about the timing of any moisture arriving to the region but if it arrives early Sunday, there is a good chance that freezing rain and sleet will mix with rain for the onset before switching over to all rain. That scenario will become more clear and we get closer to the weekend. In either case, temperatures will warm quite a bit into the 40's Sunday-Monday. You can identify the warming trend on the Looking Ahead graphic to the left. Near...

Credit: Midwest Regional Climate Center. Click for larger view. Tuesday PM Update: The heaviest rain has come and left it's mark over the past weekend bringing flooded out roads and forcing people from their homes in parts of Missouri and Illinois. The slow, steady rain is starting to wind down and a break in the weather is expected for a day or two. Epic rainfall totals have made headlines for the past few days and record-breaking numbers are becoming more likely as we wrap up Meteorological Summer and the month of August. a fairly large swath of more than 6" of rain has been measured from Southern Indians down through Southern Illinois and into Southeast Missouri just over the past 7 days as see in the graphic above. Even a few specks of white appear in IL/MO which indicates more than 10" or rain during that 7-day period of time (mainly Sat-Tue). Here are a few official 4-Day totals listed by the National Weather Service in Paducah, KY and weatherunderground.com. ...

Monday AM Update: This morning's look at the risk area from the Storm Pediction Center is still pretty close to what we've been seeing the past couple of days. Kentucky and Tennessee are included in the ENHANCED risk and everyone in the Local 6 area is covered under the SLIGHT risk area. To see how each risk area is defined, see the Sunday PM Update below.  Sunday PM Update: The Storm Prediction Center has updates their outlook and it still places KY/TN in the area for greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday. A few showers and storms will be possible late tonight and early tomorrow as an initial weak front passes through the area. By Monday evening, a warm front will lift back north across the Local 6 area, bringing back the moisture needed for Tuesday storm development.  Here is a closer look at timing of the main line of storms expected on Tuesday: Friday PM Update:   All signs have pointed to a major storm system developing in the heart ...

SNOW TOTALS AS OF 11AM These are official from the National Weather Service in Paducah and Memphis. Some impressive areas of deep snow. Did you see my projected sweet spots I posted yesterday? Scroll down to yesterday's post to see the highlighted cities I picked for "sweet spots" and how it compares to the following list. Click to enlarge. A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A mix of wintry precipitation will move in from southwest to northeast this afternoon and evening, light to begin. Later tonight and early Friday morning the mixed precipitation will switch over to snow, heavy at times, making for hazardous road conditions. A Winter Storm WARNING is already in place from Thursday 6PM until Friday Midday.  An area of low pressure will develop in the deep south by this evening and move northeast through the Tennessee Valley. We always look to the heavy snow band to set up around 150 miles to the northwest ...

As our global climate changes, so does our planting zones, helping us determine which flowers/shrubs/trees are hardy in specific areas. The Local 6 area has always been split by 2-3 growing zones so placement becomes very important to those in the agricultural community. The image below represents the average over the past 30 years. Climate Central published the following information:  "What kinds of flowers, shrubs and trees you’ll find at your local nursery depends on your climate — how warm it tends to get in summer, and how cold in winter. A plant that’s happy in Wisconsin might be miserable in Alabama, and vice versa. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has formalized these differences into " hardiness zones " — strips of similar climate that run more or less east-to-west (except in the high mountains), where particular plants should do especially well. But as the planet warms under its thickening blanket of greenhouse gases, those zones are shifting northward. Th...

Wednesday AM Update: An early round of showers continues to move east across the area this morning in advance of the heavier showers and storms arriving later today and overnight. The Paducah National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood WATCH for much of Western Kentucky, Southeast Missouri and parts of Southern Illinois. Here is the latest map (right).  Area-wide we could pick up 1-3" of rain but where heavy rain persists or trains over the same areas, there is the possibility of somebody recording 4-5". Southeast Missouri, far Western Kentucky, and counties along the Mississippi River appear to be at highest risk for those higher totals. Flash flooding and river flooding will be the highest concern with this storm system. People who live near the Big Muddy and Cache Rivers in IL, the Black, St. Francois and Current Rivers in MO, the Obion River in TN and the numerous creeks in KY such as the Clarks, Obion, Cypress, and Perkins should be alert to fast rising water...

PART 2 ( Click here to see Part 1. ) Try your hand at this interactive panel below where you can click on the 3 separate categories to reveal new information. Trent Okerson and Todd Faulkner featured this week's "Good Question" during Local 6 at 5pm Monday evening. They did an awesome job showing the power of water and why you should prepare. What is Flash Flooding?

Thursday PM Update: Going forecast seems to be right on track with very little in the way of snow accumulation expected in Western Kentucky and NW Tennessee. The path of the low has shifted slightly making the snow cutoff line a little more North-South oriented. Higher amounts are still possible in Central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee by Saturday morning. Any snow that does accumulate will likely fade quickly with warmer surface temperatures and mild weather Saturday.  Here is a look at more specific snow totals. Prepping for possibility of wintry weather headed for Western Kentucky and NW Tennessee on Friday. Snow chances have started showing up in the weather computer models and with each update, the different models are coming together to indicate a growing chance for a wintry system to cross the southwest half of the area. Even though most of our area is set to see light accumulations on the order of 1-3", maybe even less, now is the time to prepare for some sl...

Keeping an eye on the potential for light icing Monday afternoon and evening. Saturday PM Update: The going forecast from the previous update still looks pretty accurate. I took a screenshot of the projected freezing rain totals expected according to the computer model which lines up well with what we have been seeing for a couple of days. There has been a little more of Western Kentucky included in the chance of the light icing but other than that, see below for other graphics. 12Z SAT NAM MODEL RUN - FROM EARL BARKER SNOW Friday PM Update: For a few days now, computer models have been indicating that cold air will spill into the northern half of the Local 6 area Monday throughout the day before moisture leaves the area. Temperatures will begin in the 40's during the morning then drop to near freezing by mid to late afternoon. Areas in Western Kentucky along the Ohio River north into Southern Illinois and most of Southeast Missouri will most likely see the arrival of ...

March 4th Update During the newscast at 10pm this evening, I showcased the final stats that will go into the record book for Winter 2014. The following video shows that the Paducah area ranked 10th in both "coldest and "snowiest". The winter of 1978 was the benchmark for both and has reminded many of this winter's brutal cold and active weather pattern. Thanks to Climate Central for the specialized graphics! February 13th Update Data collected by Jennifer Rukavina from the Paducah National Weather and the Kentucky Mesonet February 11th Update Meteorological Winter technically runs from Dec-Jan-Feb. We are closing in on the end of this season and wanted to give you a preliminary look at how December and January temperatures ranked across Western Kentucky. December temperatures averaged out to pretty close to normal (compared to Barkley Regional data). January temperatures finished up being well below normal. To track the differe...

Sat Afternoon Update:  New winter weather alerts that into effect tonight. Start wrapping up preparations!  Fri PM Update: Confidence continues to grow and point toward the winter storm threat of icing. Winter Storm WATCHES were issued by the National Weather Service this morning and afternoon including all of the Local 6 area now. The timing below still looks fairly in-line with the forecast that we have been showing for a couple of days. Here is a closer look at ice accumulation totals and the impact index of ice. Be sure to continue your preparations tomorrow before the winter storm really moves in on Sunday and look for additional updates here. There may be a few small changes but the weather models have been pretty locked in on the Ohio River counties for higher totals for several cycles now. In addition to ice accumulation, snow and sleet will also accumulate making for an icy mix on roadways. While sleet and snowfall will be a secondary concern to the i...