Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Click to enlarge We've finally emerged from the coldest air we've see this season as temperatures warm closer to and just above freezing on Wednesday but it's only a lull. An area of high pressure over Eastern Canada will allow cold air to spill back down in to the Midsouth and Upper Midwest but for a shorter period of time than the last round. This blast of arctic air is headed our way Wednesday night only to be followed by a possible light wintry mix by the weekend.  Click to enlarge Computer models are not in good agreement about the timing of any moisture arriving to the region but if it arrives early Sunday, there is a good chance that freezing rain and sleet will mix with rain for the onset before switching over to all rain. That scenario will become more clear and we get closer to the weekend. In either case, temperatures will warm quite a bit into the 40's Sunday-Monday. You can identify the warming trend on the Looking Ahead graphic to the left. Near...

It happens with the flip of a switch every year in the Mid-South. It's not uncommon to go from very warm and stormy to blustery and cold (snowy) all in a matter of a week. That time has arrived for the Local 6 area this week and the big change will happen late Monday Night and Tuesday.  Warm and windy conditions ahead of a BIG cold front will lead to showers and storms tonight and early Tuesday. While wintery precipitation is not widely expected the stark change will come in temperatures behind the front. This shift in weather dynamics will not be short term. The overall weather pattern will favor a trough (dip) in the jetstream to allow cold, Canadian air to spill southward for several days and favor a few small chances for snow in the next seven days. (Snow lovers clap here!)  As we switch to this northwest flow regime, the cold air in place and energy swinging down through gives us our first chance at flurries and light snow Thursday night. A slightly bigger piece ...

As we wrap up the month of February and the end of Meteorological Winter, we won't soon forget the Siberian Express that brought record cold temperatures and a double shot of snow during President's Day week. Here is how we stand if the month ended today....likely going to hold. Compared to February 1978, it will be fairly difficult to break into the #1 spot. Just for number's sake, February of 1978 averaged 24.4 degrees compared February of 2015 at 28.6 (as of the 24th). Do you remember 1978 and the extended period of cold temperatures and a lot of snow? I'd love to hear your story by posting in the comment section below! Top 5 Paducah Snowstorms 1. 14.2" on December 22-23, 2004 2. 12.2" on January 16-17, 1978 3. 10.8" on February 16, 2015 4. 8.2" on February 27-28, 1984 5. 8.0" on March 6, 1967

Global Temperature Anomaly 2014 (Map 1) Weatherbell Frigid air is about to infiltrate the eastern US again bringing the feel of Winter back to the Local 6 area starting this week.  Since the end of 2013, a La Nina-Neutral influenced weather pattern has left the eastern Lower 48 under a trof of colder than normal temperatures. (See Map 1) Only recently (past few months) the La Nina-Neutral pattern has transitioned to El Nino-Neutral allowing for a loosening of that grip on some of the central states. (See Map 2) Global Temperature Anomaly January 1 - February 9, 2015 (Map 2) Weatherbell With warm, dry weather continuing to supply the positive feedback mechanism in the West, slight changes in the overall weather pattern are not likely to break that cycle, especially headed into the warm seasons.....and this is just one way to look at it. We may consider that the seasonal transitions may help "wobble" the dividing line and break the consistent nature of this...

As a cold front drops south across the area on Wednesday, moisture in the form of snow will follow behind the leading edge of colder air. This will result in a light snow event but also the possibility of that snow freezing on roadways that are not pre-treated Wednesday night. While impacts and accumulations appear to be minor at this point, preparing by allowing yourself some extra commute time Thursday morning is likely to be necessary. Here are the latest forecast graphics below:  Temperatures will drop quickly as the snow arrives north to south and expected overnight lows will reach into the teens for most. Be sure to carry with you a winter weather kit for your car/truck and keep the kiddos bundled up. Keep in mind that even a light snowfall amount can cause area road problems, much like we experienced in mid-January. Even quick preps can ensure a safe Thursday morning commute!

Thursday PM Update: Going forecast seems to be right on track with very little in the way of snow accumulation expected in Western Kentucky and NW Tennessee. The path of the low has shifted slightly making the snow cutoff line a little more North-South oriented. Higher amounts are still possible in Central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee by Saturday morning. Any snow that does accumulate will likely fade quickly with warmer surface temperatures and mild weather Saturday.  Here is a look at more specific snow totals. Prepping for possibility of wintry weather headed for Western Kentucky and NW Tennessee on Friday. Snow chances have started showing up in the weather computer models and with each update, the different models are coming together to indicate a growing chance for a wintry system to cross the southwest half of the area. Even though most of our area is set to see light accumulations on the order of 1-3", maybe even less, now is the time to prepare for some sl...

Keeping an eye on the potential for light icing Monday afternoon and evening. Saturday PM Update: The going forecast from the previous update still looks pretty accurate. I took a screenshot of the projected freezing rain totals expected according to the computer model which lines up well with what we have been seeing for a couple of days. There has been a little more of Western Kentucky included in the chance of the light icing but other than that, see below for other graphics. 12Z SAT NAM MODEL RUN - FROM EARL BARKER SNOW Friday PM Update: For a few days now, computer models have been indicating that cold air will spill into the northern half of the Local 6 area Monday throughout the day before moisture leaves the area. Temperatures will begin in the 40's during the morning then drop to near freezing by mid to late afternoon. Areas in Western Kentucky along the Ohio River north into Southern Illinois and most of Southeast Missouri will most likely see the arrival of ...

March 4th Update During the newscast at 10pm this evening, I showcased the final stats that will go into the record book for Winter 2014. The following video shows that the Paducah area ranked 10th in both "coldest and "snowiest". The winter of 1978 was the benchmark for both and has reminded many of this winter's brutal cold and active weather pattern. Thanks to Climate Central for the specialized graphics! February 13th Update Data collected by Jennifer Rukavina from the Paducah National Weather and the Kentucky Mesonet February 11th Update Meteorological Winter technically runs from Dec-Jan-Feb. We are closing in on the end of this season and wanted to give you a preliminary look at how December and January temperatures ranked across Western Kentucky. December temperatures averaged out to pretty close to normal (compared to Barkley Regional data). January temperatures finished up being well below normal. To track the differe...

It's been talked about ever since it was announced that the Superbowl was going to be held in an open stadium, open to the possibility of Mother Nature's worst. While it looks somewhat cold, only a minimal chance of ANY snow is part of the forecast on this game day in New Jersey. To see how this particular stadium and others rank amongst the coldest and snowiest historically, check out these graphics below....and Happy Superbowl Watching! P.S. I'm proud to see Cleveland Browns Stadium ranking too (Bad to the Bone!). :)

The chill in the air is rather brisk and a light dusting of snow covered the ground this morning....Winter's grip is still holding tight despite being the end of March.....but isn't this what March used to be like? We've gotten so used to an early Spring that now when an "average" Winter/Spring comes along, it stings a little. :) Last March we were basking in record warmth with multiple 80+ degree days and farmers were planting earlier than ever hoping for a bumper crop. This March, a weak La Nina weather pattern along with a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation signal has kept up much colder than the average. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) means this: The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern United States The positive phase brings the opposite conditions, steering ocean storms farther north and bringing wetter weather to Alaska Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center - March 26, 2013 The climate models project the above forecast and...