Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Getting a general idea of what the upcoming Winter months (December, January and February) will look like for our region can be heavily influenced by El Nino and La Nina episodes. Global and oceanic forecasters have observed El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and an EL NINO ADVISORY has been issued. The episode is expected to continue through Spring (March, April and May) in the Northern Hemisphere. Model projections are pointing to a strong, possibly very strong episode occurrence.  (Current Sea Surface Temps warming off S. America) Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological Winter. An average winter in the Local 6 area shows an average temperature of 37 degrees, average precipitation total of 12.18" and average snowfall of 8.4". The National Weather Service in Paducah has historical data that covers 7 of the past strongest El Nino episodes in the past...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Only minor adjustments to the placement of ice accumulations are necessary for the evening and overnight forecast. A Winter Weather ADVISORY is in effect for much of Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois, and parts of TN and MO. An Ice Storm WARNING is in effect for a few counties in Southeast Missouri. Both alerts are on the map to the right. MONDAY EVENING UPDATE: Another round of wintry weather is expected in the form of rain, snow, and freezing rain starting later Tuesday and continue into early Wednesday. Much like the first wintry system we experienced this year, much of the precipitation will be in the form of rain, freezing rain and sleet. Starting early Tuesday evening, rain and sleet will overspread the area pretty quickly and possibly even switch over to all rain for an hour or two, especially south of the Ohio River. During the overnight hours we are expecting temperatures to hover around the freezing mark. Where temperatures drop below fre...

Many of you have been sharing with us your photos of the great Winter predictor....the Woolly Bear! You've probably noticed a wide variety showing up in your own backyard. Not all "woolly-looking" caterpillars are Woolly Bears. Even the all-black versions are actually a different type of caterpillar. Below shows a good photo of what a TRUE Woolly Bear Caterpillar looks like. They have very full, thick bristles and have both orange and black segments.The other three caterpillars are often mistaken for the true Woolly Bear. Both the blond and tan colored caterpillar are the Yellow Bear Caterpillar.  The all black caterpillar with faint red stripes on the segments is the Giant Leopard Moth Caterpillar. They all have that bristled look but the one on the far right is the Woolly Bear. Now let's get to specifics....The folklore says that the Woolly Bear Caterpillar is a predictor of the upcoming winters' harshness. Each Woolly Bear has orange and black segments (...

Credit: Midwest Regional Climate Center. Click for larger view. Tuesday PM Update: The heaviest rain has come and left it's mark over the past weekend bringing flooded out roads and forcing people from their homes in parts of Missouri and Illinois. The slow, steady rain is starting to wind down and a break in the weather is expected for a day or two. Epic rainfall totals have made headlines for the past few days and record-breaking numbers are becoming more likely as we wrap up Meteorological Summer and the month of August. a fairly large swath of more than 6" of rain has been measured from Southern Indians down through Southern Illinois and into Southeast Missouri just over the past 7 days as see in the graphic above. Even a few specks of white appear in IL/MO which indicates more than 10" or rain during that 7-day period of time (mainly Sat-Tue). Here are a few official 4-Day totals listed by the National Weather Service in Paducah, KY and weatherunderground.com. ...

Tuesday Evening Update: Rain is arriving pretty close to model projections, maybe early by 30-60 minutes. Radar shows a large span of rain moving in from the south across TN and AR this afternoon and will overspread the area through 6-7PM. Along with increased rain chances will come an increase in winds, especially during the overnight hours. Winds will become sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph. A Wind ADVISORY is now in effect for most of the Local 6 area until 6PM Wednesday evening. A Winter Weather ADVISORY goes into effect Wednesday morning at 3AM and continues through 6PM Wednesday evening for Southern Illinois and SE Missouri. Snow totals are still looking most likely in SEMO/SIL. Below is a breakdown of expected snow totals by state. Monday PM Update: A rather strong and multi-faceted storm system will bring a variety of weather elements with it starting Tuesday evening and continue through Wednesday night. Heavy rain at times will begin to spread acro...

A look at snow totals as of 2:30PM for the Local 6 area. Storm reports and map provided by the National Weather Service SUNDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY will go into effect starting at 3AM Sunday morning running until 3AM Monday morning for accumulating snow and hazardous driving conditions. Expected snow totals have been raised just a bit since last night.  To the right is a look at what each computer model is projecting for snow totals in the Paducah area, ranging from 1-4" by Sunday evening. I detailed each state further down the page so you can see what to expect where you live compared to everyone else in the Local 6 area.  Also, below is the latest map of the Local 6 area and snowfall forecast. Some of the snowfall forecast totals below may also include sleet accumulation, especially across KY/MO. Freezing rain may also cause some slick conditions on roads left untreat...

Friday Midday Update: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most of the Local 6 area to an ENHANCED RISK of severe storms today. The threats still include damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.  The timing still looks pretty accurate according to the forecast images below. We anticipate scattered storms to develop and move east by early afternoon. A more organized line of possibly severe storms should develop over Missouri by early evening and push east before midnight tonight. Thursday Evening Update: Periods of high heat and humidity have been with us for a couple weeks now peaking today before showers and thunderstorms begin spreading into the Local 6 area late tonight and throughout the day on Friday. A cold front will push south across our area and bring lower humidity and cooler temperatures to get the weekend started. A few strong storms may skirt our area Thursday Night then redevelop by midday on Friday and bring along the threat of damaging...

THURSDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY! Wednesday Afternoon Update: The entire Local 6 area is now included in the outlook for an ENHANCED RISK for severe weather for Thursday - Thursday night. This is an upgrade from what the Storm Prediction Center had earlier today. You can also see just below the map what the different risk categories mean to you. See below for timing and additional details. Wednesday Update: An active weather pattern continues to bring strong storms to the region this week with a greater risk arriving on Thursday and Thursday night. A strong cold front will move in from the Central Plains and Upper Midwest during the day on Thursday. Ahead of the front, very warm, moist and unstable air will lead to thunderstorm development rapidly Thursday evening.  The images to the left show the forecast radar imagery for different time periods starting at 6PM on Thursday evening. The cold front should clear the Local 6 area around Midnight and take...

WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR SEVERE STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  10AM Thursday Update:  Here is a breakdown of the risks the Storm Prediction Center has outlined for the Local 6 area: Courtesy Storm Prediction Center Courtesy Storm Prediction Center The left graphic shows the tornado risk and the graphic on the right details the damaging wind threat. 1AM Thursday Update : The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most of the Local 6 area to an ENHANCED RISK for severe weather for Thursday and Thursday Night. The highest likelihood of severe storms remains for Thursday overnight but severe storms are possible dayside as well, just not as widespread.  Wednesday Evening Update : A stormy weather pattern will set up across our region from Wednesday night into Friday bringing the threat of severe weather and possible flooding.  A moisture boundary will lift through our area overnight kicking off the first...

Send us your "Spring in Bloom" photos! My absolute favorite time during the year is the season of life, SPRING! I enjoy the warm air, chirping baby birds, emerging buds, and vibrant blooms. I love capturing it all on film just as much as the next person so we'd love to share your view of Spring with other viewers too. Here's how! BE CREATIVE! HAVE FUN! EXPLORE SOMETHING NEW! ...then download this new app we are launching that will send The Weather Authority an instant message alerting us to your viewer photo. It will also place your photo on a map with other viewers so that you can see what others are discovering and capturing in our area. It will also make it super easy for us to share more photos during our weather shows! Here is the link to download from iTunes but it's also available in Google Play.  StormPins by Prospect Hill Advisors LLC: https://appsto.re/us/4AwsJ.i ***You can also instantly share your videos, storm photos and news photos with...