Mid-South Winter Outlook 2023-2024

Getting a general idea of what the upcoming Winter months (December, January and February) will look like for our region can be heavily influenced by El Nino and La Nina episodes. Global and oceanic forecasters have observed El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and an EL NINO ADVISORY has been issued. The episode is expected to continue through Spring (March, April and May) in the Northern Hemisphere. Model projections are pointing to a strong, possibly very strong episode occurrence.

(Current Sea Surface Temps warming off S. America)

Meteorologists look at monthly data from Dec - Jan - Feb to determine a winter season average, or define that period of time as Meteorological Winter. An average winter in the Local 6 area shows an average temperature of 37 degrees, average precipitation total of 12.18" and average snowfall of 8.4".

The National Weather Service in Paducah has historical data that covers 7 of the past strongest El Nino episodes in the past 75 years (according to current forecast trends).

The similar El Nino episodes include the winters of 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. In each episode, temperatures averaged close to or above normal. In these 7 cases, the stronger the El Nino episode, the warmer the winter averaged.

WINTER 1997-1998 and WINTER 2015-2016 were both classified as very strong episodes and temperatures averaged about 3-4 degrees warmer for the winter season. Both fall under the Top 10 warmest winters on record at Paducah.

As for snow, past El Nino episodes did not produce any exceptionally snowy seasons. In fact, the stronger the episodes, the greater likelihood of a snow drought. It did however lead to average to above average precipitation in a few cases. It makes sense that in a warmer season, there are less opportunities to produce snowfall.

CONCLUSION: We are likely to see a winter with above average temperatures. Cold spells will still occur but not as frequent. We will have to observe where the subtropical jet stream settles in to know for sure whether our precipitation will be on the high side of normal or not. While the opportunities may be limited for snowy periods amongst a warmer than average season, it only takes one of those cold spells to create one single large snow event. (The only hope I can find for the snow-lovers out there!)

Here's what the Climate Prediction Center has released for Winter 2023-2024 (Dec-Jan-Feb)

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