Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

By the end of March 2013, we were more than ready to put Winter behind us after bitterly cold temperatures hanging on and periods of snow blanketing the area. We were influenced by a weak La Nina episode and arctic air was readily available to the Eastern United States. Currently the Climate Prediction Center is in "La Nina Watch" mode with a 70% chance of development this Fall and continuing into Winter 2016-2017. A record El Nino episode came to an end early in the Summer and we have been in a neutral period for a couple of months now. Signs of continued cooling in the Pacific waters off the coast of South America points to the likely development of a weak La Nina episode for the cool season. The reason we look at El Nino and La Nina episodes is because it has a direct impact on the overall weather pattern across North America. It gives us guidance. During La Nina, we tend to see colder winters and a higher likelihood of stormy (wintry) weather. Temperatures d...

Many of you have been sharing with us your photos of the great Winter predictor....the Woolly Bear! You've probably noticed a wide variety showing up in your own backyard. Not all "woolly-looking" caterpillars are Woolly Bears. Even the all-black versions are actually a different type of caterpillar. Below shows a good photo of what a TRUE Woolly Bear Caterpillar looks like. They have very full, thick bristles and have both orange and black segments.The other three caterpillars are often mistaken for the true Woolly Bear. Both the blond and tan colored caterpillar are the Yellow Bear Caterpillar.  The all black caterpillar with faint red stripes on the segments is the Giant Leopard Moth Caterpillar. They all have that bristled look but the one on the far right is the Woolly Bear. Now let's get to specifics....The folklore says that the Woolly Bear Caterpillar is a predictor of the upcoming winters' harshness. Each Woolly Bear has orange and black segments (...

Thursday September 22, 2016 at 9:21 AM Central marks the beginning of fall here in the Local 6 area. While temperatures are still very summer-like I wanted to give you a peak at how quickly our weather will change in the next couple months. The seasonal start represents equal parts daylight and darkness and we'll see a decline in daylight hours until the Winter Solstice in December. With less daylight comes less warmth in the Northern Hemisphere along with a migrating jet stream that often brings harsh storms both of the severe and winter variety. A look at the graphic to the right shows that decline in temperatures from September to November. Hot and humid conditions with highs in the 80's and 90's are usually ongoing as we first embark on Fall but a chill in the air is rarely far behind. By October frost is threatening to bring an end to the growing season and November ushers in a higher chance of a first snow and daily jacket-wearing. Seasonal allergies begi...

Credit: Midwest Regional Climate Center. Click for larger view. Tuesday PM Update: The heaviest rain has come and left it's mark over the past weekend bringing flooded out roads and forcing people from their homes in parts of Missouri and Illinois. The slow, steady rain is starting to wind down and a break in the weather is expected for a day or two. Epic rainfall totals have made headlines for the past few days and record-breaking numbers are becoming more likely as we wrap up Meteorological Summer and the month of August. a fairly large swath of more than 6" of rain has been measured from Southern Indians down through Southern Illinois and into Southeast Missouri just over the past 7 days as see in the graphic above. Even a few specks of white appear in IL/MO which indicates more than 10" or rain during that 7-day period of time (mainly Sat-Tue). Here are a few official 4-Day totals listed by the National Weather Service in Paducah, KY and weatherunderground.com. ...

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. Saturday PM Update: A Flash Flood WATCH has been extended until Tuesday morning at 7AM. Reports of severe flash flooding have been relayed to the National Weather Service in Paducah from areas across Southern Illinois and Southeast Missouri. Up to 6" of rain has fallen over some of those areas with more to come. Here is a look at the latest projected rainfall totals. Notice that the corridor of higher totals has shifted a few miles to the NW of the OH River. South of the OH River, heavy rain will still be possible but more scattered and not as long duration as to the north.  Projected rainfall totals from Saturday night through Tuesday morning. Compare this graphic to the one below. The highest totals are expected NW of the Ohio River. Those of you in areas where rain has persisted on Saturday and are expected to see significant additional rain should take steps to make an evacuation plan in the event you need to leave for hi...

Climate Central - State of KY Report Card - Full Report When it comes to responding to inland flooding disasters, Kentucky is spot-on. Prepareing for future disasters with a long-term plan is a different story and we know we can do A LOT BETTER! For the first time Climate Central released report cards featuring how well each of the 50 states prepares for current hazards and future climate change. A closer look reveals relatively bad grades for states in the Local 6 area. Missouri was at the bottom of the 4-state area coming in with a grade of "F". Kentucky and Illinois followed with a grade of "D" while Tennessee earned highest marks in the region with a "C". The nearly failing grades in Kentucky showed up when looking at future disasters, planning, and long-term preparedness statewide.  The graphic above shows the breakdown of the grades assigned to the different climate related disasters deemed future risks. The same study/grading showed Kentucky...

Please be sure to have a way to receive severe weather alerts for the holiday weekend, especially Sunday and Monday. Sunday Afternoon Update:  A Tornado Watch has been issued for most of the Local 6 area until 10PM. A warm front sits across Southern Illinois and Indiana allowing for a more unstable air mass across IL/KY this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has been watching our region for the past couple of day for the threat of severe storms this afternoon and evening. An isolated tornado is also possible. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with storms that develop. Here is the latest map the Storm Prediction Center put out mid-afternoon. Be alert that conditions will change quickly this afternoon and evening and those who are spending time outdoors or on area lakes should be especially vigilant. Friday PM Update: Unfortunate timing with the holiday weekend finally here but a chance of severe storms has crept into the forecast for Sunday the 3rd and M...