Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

Tuesday Evening Update: Rain is arriving pretty close to model projections, maybe early by 30-60 minutes. Radar shows a large span of rain moving in from the south across TN and AR this afternoon and will overspread the area through 6-7PM. Along with increased rain chances will come an increase in winds, especially during the overnight hours. Winds will become sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph. A Wind ADVISORY is now in effect for most of the Local 6 area until 6PM Wednesday evening. A Winter Weather ADVISORY goes into effect Wednesday morning at 3AM and continues through 6PM Wednesday evening for Southern Illinois and SE Missouri. Snow totals are still looking most likely in SEMO/SIL. Below is a breakdown of expected snow totals by state. Monday PM Update: A rather strong and multi-faceted storm system will bring a variety of weather elements with it starting Tuesday evening and continue through Wednesday night. Heavy rain at times will begin to spread acro...

A look at snow totals as of 2:30PM for the Local 6 area. Storm reports and map provided by the National Weather Service SUNDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY will go into effect starting at 3AM Sunday morning running until 3AM Monday morning for accumulating snow and hazardous driving conditions. Expected snow totals have been raised just a bit since last night.  To the right is a look at what each computer model is projecting for snow totals in the Paducah area, ranging from 1-4" by Sunday evening. I detailed each state further down the page so you can see what to expect where you live compared to everyone else in the Local 6 area.  Also, below is the latest map of the Local 6 area and snowfall forecast. Some of the snowfall forecast totals below may also include sleet accumulation, especially across KY/MO. Freezing rain may also cause some slick conditions on roads left untreat...

Signs might be pointing to El Nino moving past it's peak intensity for this particular episode while moving toward a neutral phase by Spring. Below is an animation that showed the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino episode then toward the very end starts to show a drop in Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. This may very well be a signal of El Nino weakening. This same trend has also been picked up in forecast computer models projecting a neutral phase by late Spring and even suggesting a weak La Nina phase by late Summer. Below is a look at the latest computer model projections all the way through the start of Fall 2016. Each line color represents a different model forecast. The closer the line is to "zero" the more neutral the phase is expected. The solid yellow line is the average of all the model forecasts. Most of the models agree on an El Nino phase (positive 0.5+) until the AMJ (April-May-June) time frame. This would suggest a slowly weakening El Nino through...

Monday AM Update: This morning's look at the risk area from the Storm Pediction Center is still pretty close to what we've been seeing the past couple of days. Kentucky and Tennessee are included in the ENHANCED risk and everyone in the Local 6 area is covered under the SLIGHT risk area. To see how each risk area is defined, see the Sunday PM Update below.  Sunday PM Update: The Storm Prediction Center has updates their outlook and it still places KY/TN in the area for greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday. A few showers and storms will be possible late tonight and early tomorrow as an initial weak front passes through the area. By Monday evening, a warm front will lift back north across the Local 6 area, bringing back the moisture needed for Tuesday storm development.  Here is a closer look at timing of the main line of storms expected on Tuesday: Friday PM Update:   All signs have pointed to a major storm system developing in the heart ...

SNOW TOTALS AS OF 11AM These are official from the National Weather Service in Paducah and Memphis. Some impressive areas of deep snow. Did you see my projected sweet spots I posted yesterday? Scroll down to yesterday's post to see the highlighted cities I picked for "sweet spots" and how it compares to the following list. Click to enlarge. A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A mix of wintry precipitation will move in from southwest to northeast this afternoon and evening, light to begin. Later tonight and early Friday morning the mixed precipitation will switch over to snow, heavy at times, making for hazardous road conditions. A Winter Storm WARNING is already in place from Thursday 6PM until Friday Midday.  An area of low pressure will develop in the deep south by this evening and move northeast through the Tennessee Valley. We always look to the heavy snow band to set up around 150 miles to the northwest ...

Friday Evening Update: Forecast River levels along the Ohio River at Paducah and Cairo have been lowered by around two feet. According to the City of Paducah, these lower levels will allow the city to keep from putting in additional flood gates. The Army Corps of Engineers is also more optimistic about not having to operate the Birds Point Floodway. Here is a look at the Ohio River with an aerial view this afternoon . Vide o courtesy of UAVRG Friday Morning Update: From the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Information Center: "Info from Thursday evening's Public Meeting with Congressman Jason Smith, Corps of Engineers leaders and local residents at Charleston, Mo. The National Weather Service has revised the forecasted river crest at Cairo, Ill., downward to 57.5 feet on Jan. 4 - good news for everyone." The Red Cross shelter in Cape Girardeau continues to accept evacuees. With lower water levels projected for Cairo, IL, the likelihood of activating the Birds Po...

Photo Credit: Cody Duty - Houston Chronicle - AP A follow-up post to the original, " The Future of Flash Flood Warnings ." Flash flooding has claimed scores of lives across the U.S. in 2015. Twenty-six major disaster declarations have been made in the name of FLOODING. As heavy downpours increase in frequency, millions of people will be susceptible to this rapid impact natural disaster. El Nino may also contribute to an increase in events in the next several months for parts of the country. The New Year's Flood in the Mississippi River Sandbagging efforts along MS River - Photo: Michael Kelley Valley is the most recent example of how a single event can take lives and destroy property with very little in the way of time to react.  You can prepare people as much as humanly possible but until it impacts them specifically, you are sort of speaking and dealing with the unknown. Our region is no stranger to extreme river flooding and flash flooding (urban) e...