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Severe Storms Possible Tuesday


Tuesday Morning Update:
The morning update has brought a slightly larger risk area and a new outlines tornado risk area that includes areas of Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois, and counties along the MS River in Missouri and Tennessee. That is shown in the second graphic below. 



Monday Evening Update:
Monday Morning Update:
These updates were anticipated further down in the blog from Sunday evening's post...The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our area to a slight/enhanced risk for severe storms on Tuesday. Here is the latest outlook graphic as of Monday morning. 


 Sunday Evening Update: 

A vigorous cold front will stream across the Local 6 are and Midwest on Tuesday bringing the threat for strong to severe storms. The subtropical jet stream will be supplying moisture and strong winds/lift by early Tuesday across the region. As an area of low pressure passes just to our north it will allow the return flow of warm, moist air at the surface which will become increasingly unstable during the late morning and early afternoon. A line of storms is expected to develop over the Ozarks of MO around noon on Tuesday then advance eastward through the afternoon. This line of storms will bring a damaging wind threat along with an isolated tornado or two. Daytime heating will be underway ahed of the front and may contribute to a few storms developing out ahead of the main line, especially over KY and TN. These storms will have a higher likelihood of producing large hail and even a few tornadoes. 
Overall dynamics favor the threat for damaging winds and large hail, storms with strong updrafts. Hail one inch or greater will be possible. Storms are expected to increase in intensity and coverage east to west through the afternoon. Here’s a look at model-projected radar for Tuesday Noon - 6pm. 
per Weatherbell.com
A very saturated ground will make it easier for winds to topple power lines and trees so remember to stay away from windows as part of your severe weather safety plan.

Flash flooding from heavy downpours will be possible with any isolated storms that develop ahead of the main line. Once the main line passes through the region by early evening, the severe weather threat should come to an end as cooler, drier air arrives. 
The following is the Storm Prediction Center outlook for Tuesday and will likely be upgraded to an enhanced or slight risk for the Local 6 area by then. 

Comments

akhilapriya404 said…
This concept is a good way to enhance the knowledge.thanks for sharing. please keep it up ios Online course Bangalore
May 1, 2018 at 6:31 AM
Unknown said…
what happened to the sunny wk.end J.R.?

Earlier in the week, Ch.6 Weather Xperts showed nearly full sun icons beginning Thurs. ~ continuing thru Sun.
As usual, you guys pick a different "computer model" and, about every 6 to 12 hrs., you change the forecast to the very opposite of the previously predicted.

Yes, it's absurd to blame you for being unable to control the weather. Yet 'why do i gripe so'? ...because none of you ever eat crow. You never refer to your misses, especially in instances of huge, glaring differences ...(i.e., forecasting two days of full sun becomes two full days of rain.

Throw away the computers', they are useless'! Go back to interpreting the traditional signs that the patterns of nature provide. Otherwise, stop ignoring the big misses'!, ...like (this week)
May 4, 2018 at 6:28 PM

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