Rukavina's Extreme Weather and Climate Blog

THURSDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY Wednesday Afternoon Update: Showers and storms will spread across the Local 6 area this evening and during the overnight hours as warm, moist air moves into the region. A cold front back over the Central Plains will begin advancing our way from the west on Thursday morning. As the front moves into the area around late morning to lunchtime, thunderstorms will re-develop across Southeast Missouri and move east into Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois, and West Tennessee. There may be a few strong storms with the first batch tonight but the higher severe weather risk comes with storms developing on Thursday along the front. Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and hail will be possible with storms on Thursday.  Storms should start to wind down and move out by early evening on Thursday with the passage of the cold front. Weather Geek Extra: For any of you who have looked at a sounding of the atmosphere....this is what is...

Friday Afternoon Update: A Flash Flood WATCH is still in effect for portions of NW TN until Saturday afternoon. We are likely to see additional counties added to this map as the threat of heavy downpours returns to the area. Another round of rain sets to move in for the weekend adding to the flooding impacting parts of the area this week. Lowland areas as well as those situated along creeks, streams, and rivers are at additional risk for flash flooding. Below is a look at estimated rainfall totals from Friday night through Sunday afternoon. RPM Model - 18Z Fri Run Wednesday Afternoon Update: Additional counties have been added to the Flash Flood WATCH as of this morning and now includes counties across all of Southern Illinois, and the Mississippi River counties in KY/TN and the Paducah Area. You can see the map positioned below. In addition to those changes on the map, the placement of heavy rain has been shifted a little further to the SE, thus prompting the National Wea...

Tuesday Evening Update: Rain is arriving pretty close to model projections, maybe early by 30-60 minutes. Radar shows a large span of rain moving in from the south across TN and AR this afternoon and will overspread the area through 6-7PM. Along with increased rain chances will come an increase in winds, especially during the overnight hours. Winds will become sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph. A Wind ADVISORY is now in effect for most of the Local 6 area until 6PM Wednesday evening. A Winter Weather ADVISORY goes into effect Wednesday morning at 3AM and continues through 6PM Wednesday evening for Southern Illinois and SE Missouri. Snow totals are still looking most likely in SEMO/SIL. Below is a breakdown of expected snow totals by state. Monday PM Update: A rather strong and multi-faceted storm system will bring a variety of weather elements with it starting Tuesday evening and continue through Wednesday night. Heavy rain at times will begin to spread acro...

A look at snow totals as of 2:30PM for the Local 6 area. Storm reports and map provided by the National Weather Service SUNDAY IS A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY will go into effect starting at 3AM Sunday morning running until 3AM Monday morning for accumulating snow and hazardous driving conditions. Expected snow totals have been raised just a bit since last night.  To the right is a look at what each computer model is projecting for snow totals in the Paducah area, ranging from 1-4" by Sunday evening. I detailed each state further down the page so you can see what to expect where you live compared to everyone else in the Local 6 area.  Also, below is the latest map of the Local 6 area and snowfall forecast. Some of the snowfall forecast totals below may also include sleet accumulation, especially across KY/MO. Freezing rain may also cause some slick conditions on roads left untreat...

Signs might be pointing to El Nino moving past it's peak intensity for this particular episode while moving toward a neutral phase by Spring. Below is an animation that showed the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino episode then toward the very end starts to show a drop in Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. This may very well be a signal of El Nino weakening. This same trend has also been picked up in forecast computer models projecting a neutral phase by late Spring and even suggesting a weak La Nina phase by late Summer. Below is a look at the latest computer model projections all the way through the start of Fall 2016. Each line color represents a different model forecast. The closer the line is to "zero" the more neutral the phase is expected. The solid yellow line is the average of all the model forecasts. Most of the models agree on an El Nino phase (positive 0.5+) until the AMJ (April-May-June) time frame. This would suggest a slowly weakening El Nino through...

Monday AM Update: This morning's look at the risk area from the Storm Pediction Center is still pretty close to what we've been seeing the past couple of days. Kentucky and Tennessee are included in the ENHANCED risk and everyone in the Local 6 area is covered under the SLIGHT risk area. To see how each risk area is defined, see the Sunday PM Update below.  Sunday PM Update: The Storm Prediction Center has updates their outlook and it still places KY/TN in the area for greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday. A few showers and storms will be possible late tonight and early tomorrow as an initial weak front passes through the area. By Monday evening, a warm front will lift back north across the Local 6 area, bringing back the moisture needed for Tuesday storm development.  Here is a closer look at timing of the main line of storms expected on Tuesday: Friday PM Update:   All signs have pointed to a major storm system developing in the heart ...

SNOW TOTALS AS OF 11AM These are official from the National Weather Service in Paducah and Memphis. Some impressive areas of deep snow. Did you see my projected sweet spots I posted yesterday? Scroll down to yesterday's post to see the highlighted cities I picked for "sweet spots" and how it compares to the following list. Click to enlarge. A WEATHER AUTHORITY ALERT DAY HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A mix of wintry precipitation will move in from southwest to northeast this afternoon and evening, light to begin. Later tonight and early Friday morning the mixed precipitation will switch over to snow, heavy at times, making for hazardous road conditions. A Winter Storm WARNING is already in place from Thursday 6PM until Friday Midday.  An area of low pressure will develop in the deep south by this evening and move northeast through the Tennessee Valley. We always look to the heavy snow band to set up around 150 miles to the northwest ...